Merkel & the Fate of Germany


COMMENT:  Dear Marty,

You are spot on: something big is happening in Germany at this very moment – just look at today’s headlines from

  • Widerstand in der CDU gegen Merkels Einwanderungsgesetz

= party internal opposition towards Merkel’s immigration policy

  • Bundesregierung und EU-Kommission erwägen “Flüchtlings-Soli”

= German Government mulls introduction of special migrants tax (Solidarity tax…..yeah….nice word)

  • Seehofer droht Merkel mit Verfassungsklage wegen Einwanderungspolitik

CDU’s Bavarian sister party CSU and its leader Horst Seehofer threaten to sue Government over migration crisis

I have never ever seen Germany in such a chaotic condition – the political backbone (Mittelstand) – usually strong supporters of the CDU – is also openly criticising Merkel for her idiotic policies…..

Just imagine what happens if there is a so called terrorist attack (false flag or real) in one of the large German cities. It will achieve the opposite of what they are trying to engineer with their “everyone is welcome” policy.

This is a real powder keg of epic proportions, beware if something should happen, it will unleash an avalanche of ugly retaliatory knee jerk reactions……she can then put her noble price up her arse…and Europe will also start to question Germany’s status of primus interpares. Yes, I can see now what you mean with the real crisis in government and the sovereign debt crisis you are expecting to unfold soon – it is in the making !

But boy….as long as the Euro is climbing vs the USD, everything is fine, nothing to see here…..

Nice weekend !

Best, O

REPLY: Yes, it appears our politicians on a global scale have degenerated to the worse state of incompetence. This appears to be the election temperament in the USA. With the financial capitol of the world moving to Asia (India/China), this appears to be the final nail in the coffin of Europe. The whole idea of Brussels is failing and this is why lawyers as politicians are dangerous. They do not have a clue as to how the economy or society functions. They try to write laws to command an outcome and never listen. Then on top of that, they will never admit a mistake. Once a policy is adopted, they will not change and this is the problem in motion for Europe.

There is just no way out because they will never admit this idea of one government is a total failure. My sources relay that the immigration issue was adopted by Merkel because her policy on Greece made her appear nasty inside Europe. So she accepted the migrants to change her image in the aftermath of Greece. Then Obama praised her and the next day she said there was no limit. Then she was up for the Nobel Peace Prize, but has now lost.

This posturing will prove to be a huge disaster.

Germany Elites Arguing to Increase Retirement to Pay for Refugees


The elites in Germany are calling for reforms due to the refugees. Hans-Werner Sinn, President of the IFO Institute for Economic Research said, “We’d better put up the retirement age to feed the refugees. The elderly are needed, moreover, to [teach] learn the refugees.” Sinn is proposing radical social reforms, stating, “We should take advantage of the influx of refugees as an opportunity for a new agenda of 2010.”

Indeed, the proposals are to escape the social costs that Germany cannot really honor. They are using the refugees as an excuse to impose a default on social programs.

Immigration During an Economic Decline Is Insane!


According to the BBC, the German government has admitted that there have been almost 500 attacks on homes intended for asylum seekers this year. Politicians are clueless when it comes to managing an economy. In the USA during the 1840s, in the middle of the State Sovereign Debt Crisis, gun battles took place in many areas against the Irish who were blamed for the rising unemployment and taking jobs from citizens since that was the major wave of Irish immigration during the mid-19th century.


While politicians are lining their pockets and playing for Nobel Prizes, the reality of their actions are very different. This is what happens when lawyers rule government. They know how to write laws and then expect people to obey even when their laws go against common sense and economics.

You cannot legislate morality. Violence will rise in Europe as the economy turns down. This is going to be a very rough two years ahead.

War Cycle

War Cycle Cover 2015

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; It is obvious that so many people try to copy your work and pretend it is their original work. The Cycle of War is a classic example. No matter how much they fudge everything, your models work to the day and that is just mind blowing. Nobody has been able to duplicate your work no matter how much they try to take everything you do and turn it into some scam.

Do you think this will be World War III since Russia entered the Middle East right on the day of your model?

Best regards;


ANSWER: We are preparing the new update of the War Cycle. This will be provided to those attending the World Economic Conferences. This report goes into a lot of detail with the focus on the Middle East and the result of the entry of Russia into Syria the very day of the model. This is correlated with the Economic Confidence Model (ECM) and the prospects of the future are rather shocking. Whenever something responds to the very day of the ECM model, it warns that this will be the focus. This will be made available to the general public at $75 since it is very important to understand from a sociological perspective. We will post a link when it is ready for delivery.

Market Talk – October 9th, 2015

Trading Community

We saw some solid gains in Asian Equities ranging from +0.5% (Hang Seng – highest close since the summer) up to the impressive 1.5% from the Nikkei. Generally, confidence in Asia is creeping back-in but dealers are saying that is only as long as the Shanghai Index remains above the psychological 3k level (closed today at 3,183 (+1.3%)), then investors and the authorities are happy. European Equities continued yesterdays pursuit and the talk today around London is the speculation of the developing issues in the US (concerns over the debt ceiling given the leadership vacuum). We have a few days yet before it will be front page news but it is an easy sell of the, “Just in case trade”, especially as we are in the final quarter for 2015. US stocks had a rather dull Friday having traded in and out of the black all day but finally closing marginally higher.

The DAX was the best performer in Europe eventually closing +1.2% on the day. The CAC and FTSE really did not know which direction to follow and so – after playing around unchanged all day – both eventually closed small positive.

Metals had another good day with Gold rallying over $11 closing at $1155, whilst Silver returned +0.45% and the star performer today was Copper +3.5% and Platinum +2.8%.


The US Bond market had a relatively weak morning session but recouped all of that and more in thin afternoon trading. Initially, we saw weakness pushing 10’s out to 2.13% but late buying brought that back eventually closing at 2.085% on the day -1bp. The US curve finished flatter by 1.5bp at +144.5bp. The European markets tended to drift a little today resulting in the TY/RX 10yr spread closing at +147.5bp. This recovered a little of yesterdays 4bp widening but this is a spread that could get volatile given both markets are focusing on very different issues presently.