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ECM

The Road to 2028

As I have noted before, the Roman historian Sallust concluded that the decline of the Roman Republic truly began once Rome had eliminated its external...

The CBDC Ban Expires with the Economic Confidence Model in 2030

The United States has become the first nation to prohibit its central bank from creating a central bank digital currency, but Congress quietly placed an expiration...

The Computer Was RIGHT About Gold

Gold has now fallen below $4,000 an ounce for the first time since November 2025, and suddenly everyone is proclaiming the bull market is dead. On June 24, spot...

Is This the End of the World?

QUESTION: I understand that Socrates is projecting the future from historical data. It is not your personal opinion and you do not incorporate prophecy since each...

Confidence in US Government – 1958 to Now

When the National Election Study first asked the question in 1958, about 73% of Americans said they trusted the federal government to do what is right most or all...

Gold, Silver Glut & Geopolitics

QUESTION: Marty, you always criticized the gold bugs for claiming gold rises with inflation. You are the only one who projected $5,000 gold, and you said it would...

Coverting ECM Dates

People frequently ask how to convert an Economic Confidence Model turning point into a specific calendar date. The ECM is based on time, not opinion, and time must...

2025: The Year Confidence Shifted

The year 2025 was not defined by a single shock, but by a decisive break in confidence. Governments repositioned, as did central banks, but both have realized they...

Asteroid 2032 – 2024 YR4

Everything will crash and burn in 2032. A client approached me at the latest World Economic Conference to ask if the asteroid heading for Earth in 2032 could...

Europe Fears a US Civil War – Whiskey Rebellion to Now

The Centre for Strategic and International Studies determined that the definition of a civil war is a conflict in which at least 1,000 people are killed. The...