China Still Heading Lower


The latest economic news from China shows that, in dollar terms, imports collapsed 20.4% in September from a year earlier to $145.2bn. This is one of the sharpest declines ever, and it is far beyond what was expected. This has had a further impact upon the raw commodity sector and metals. This latest drop in Chinese imports was down 20.4%, year-on-year, compared with a 13.8% decrease in August. Meanwhile, China’s exports were also down 3.7% during September after a 5.5% decline during August.

The other side of 2015.75 still looks like a sharp cliff going into next year. From an economic viewpoint, the economy turned down Wed., Sept. 30, 2015, on a global scale coinciding also with our Cycle of War on the international model. We should see the economy turn downward into a steeper recession moving into Wed., Sept. 28, 2016, which is the next turning point on the Economic Confidence Model followed thereafter by Tues., Oct. 24, 2017. Caution is advisable for it appears we should see an overall recessionary trend emerge on a global scale this time.