Blog/2016 U.S. Presidential Election
Posted Feb 23, 2016 by Martin Armstrong
Some people have asked if I am a Republican or Democrat/ Labour or Tory. Both political sides are wrong. They pander to their core constituents using the social issues to get everyone wound-up, but when it comes to economics; well there is no real difference. Neither side will reform or downsize government. Their solution will be as Christine Lagarde’s: grab more and more until it works for them.
I have been asked if I really think Trump will be the man to save us. No. I do not believe anyone can do that at this late point in history. Trump’s reading of Al Wilson’s song “The Snake” is typical and part of the cycle. The state sovereign debt crisis of the mid-19th century was set in motion by Andrew Jackson’s war on the Bank of the United States because they funded his opponents. Jackson then destroyed the central bank, which set off the Age of Broken Banknotes. The Panic of 1837 became the Depression of the 1840s, and then states issued bonds to try to bailout their banks and then they defaulted. To this date, the Bank of England still has on its books bonds issued by States that they never paid on.
The economic pressures of that period produced the very same human response to immigration. Then it was the Irish. The movement against immigrants erupted into gun battles on the streets of Philadelphia in 1844 known as the Nativism Riots. These “native” Americans (white original immigrants) were against all immigrants as they felt they were taking their jobs. So Trump’s reading of “The Snake” is PRECISELY in line with history and is reflecting the very issue that is argued for the BREXIT by one side: STOP THE MIGRANTS.
The point is, quite frankly, that history repeats. We are in the midst of an economic decline. The standard of living is declining as government expands regardless of whom has been behind the uptrend since both sides have contributed to our demise as we approach our date with reality. Europeans hate Trump because they focus on some of his hardline statements and the fact that career politicians there see him as a very dangerous consequence because the same trend is emerging in Europe — oust the career politicians. But in the USA, the more Trump stands up against the career politicians, the louder his cheers. Meanwhile, the bankers are scared to death of both Trump and Bernie Sanders and see them as dangerous. Obviously, if they do not OWN the political candidate, he might actually prosecute them for crimes.
The Mayor of London, Boris Johnson, has come out in support of BREXIT. On the other side, you have British Prime Minister David Cameron making his pitch to remain within the European Union, claiming the UK could “have the best of both worlds” if it voted to remain in the bloc. We should expect the pound to decline as part of an official attack to convince people to stay in the EU. Then they will argue that the decline in the pound is proof that Britain should stay with a sinking ship.
So the point is this: Trump’s reading of “The Snake” is a sign of the times. He is tapping into the very same human response that ALWAYS unfolds during major economic declines. Merkel’s decision to open the floodgates for immigration occurred at EXACTLY the wrong time in the economic cycle. In a bull market, nobody would have noticed. Did it create the cycle? No. The downtrend was set in motion as our forecasts were laid out. Doing what she did was stupid and counter-trend so it was interpreted as a disaster.
Now, with hard times upon us, the Islamic immigrants will compete for jobs, take state assistance, and only cause the resentment to rise among those who see their living standards diminish. This is simply part of the War Cycle, which turned up in 2014 and nothing more. I have stated countless times that our correlation of all global trends demonstrates that war never comes when everyone is “fat and happy.” Turn down the economy and it all comes unraveled.
Trump’s reading of “The Snake” is feeding into the heat of the moment. It is perfect timing regardless of which side you are on for we just may be influenced by the entire cycle heading into the coming storm. So to me it is not abnormal; it is a sign that the cycle is indeed unfolding. I need not take sides. To me, this is indicative and confirmation of the trend in motion.
Can Trump prevent our demise? No. He probably does not realize the extent of the risk we face. People should by no means focus on Trump as an individual, for they will miss the entire trend. He is a symptom of the times and not the trendsetter himself. I have more faith in Trump insofar as he is NOT a career politician and that leaves a glimmer of hope that when he is wrong, he will change course. Career politicians will NEVER do that because they are incapable of admitting to mistake. That is simply what they are told in Politics 101.
Cameron wanting to stay in the EU when it is a total disaster is indicative of someone who puts politics before his own country. If Britain votes to leave, and they will probably rig that vote as they did the Scottish Vote to separate from the UK, Europe will see a contagion of massive proportions and the EU will collapse because they tried to make this a political United States of Europe rather than an economic union. My guess: Cameron and the EU will rig any BREXIT vote to ensure it remains with the sinking ship. If Britain leaves, the EU collapses.