The Jobs Number & Reality Check


The thinking that has emerged from the release of the job numbers is confusing to say the least. They lead to the assumption that the U.S. economy has downshifted for the last three consecutive months. However, the Fed will not move into QE mode as that has robbed them of their power to attempt to manipulate the economy in tune with Keynesian Economics. There is a lot more depth to the numbers than meets the eye.

The other side of the job numbers is the economic evolution underway. The introduction of new technology is reducing jobs since basic jobs are now replaceable with machines. We are seeing this trend everywhere. South Africa’s gold-mining companies are now turning to machines to replace workers to reduce the cost of mining gold. This trend is impacting the global economy. This wave of innovation unsettles the economy and causes jobs to vanish as new types of jobs are created that require different skill sets.

So the jobs number is nothing to get excited over. You can see the stark contrast to the jobs number and household incomes, which are showing a sharp gain. Recent car sales, which have accelerated toward record levels, reflect this gain. The jobs number by itself is not altogether a key indicator. The markets will collapse and rally based upon it, but that is trading noise.