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Why Davos Predictions Are Always Wrong!

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QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I read the quote that Kenneth Rogoff made about the predictions of the attendees at Davos. He told Bloomberg: “A joke, which I have been telling since the last meeting in Davos, culminates in the fact that the predictions made in Davos are always wrong… No matter how unlikely, the most likely event is the one that is the opposite of the Davos consensus.”

I was talking to a friend who is rather high ranked in a European bank and he said when they really want a forecast they call you. Why do you not speak at Davos? Everyone knows you. So why are you not taking a more prominent role?

Thanks for what you do share with us on the outside.


ANSWER: The Davos meeting is way too public to be important. It’s just a convention for food, drink, and parties. It is not serious. However, the media thinks it is like the Bilderberg meetings. I know people who attend both. They no more can decide the fate of the world than they can predict the weather for their flights home. The majority MUST always be wrong. That is how all economies and markets move. Look at the Dow. This is historically the most bearish rally in all of its history. The majority have been addicted to predicting every new high is its last. People keep trying to short it and they get stopped out always buying new highs. The shorts keep feeding the rally – not fresh longs. That is why the majority of people are NOT in this market.

The majority must ALWAYS BE WRONG and that goes for both Davos and Bilderberg meetings. For years, being perhaps the largest institutional adviser covering the world, my clients NEVER wanted to see our forecasts on the front page of the WSJ when they were paying for that info. The people who spout out their forecasts to everyone who will listen are trolling for business. If you have the business, you do not need to troll.

There is never any point in appearing publicly at Davos or the Bilderberg meetings to hand out advise for free when they will not listen anyhow until there is a crisis. So you cannot stop or alter the trend for no politician will change course until compelled to do so. Hence, it would be just a waste of time. When such time comes I would consider speaking at either in the midst of a crisis for that will be the only time they would listen. I have always regarded myself as a crisis manager because nobody will listen to prevent a crisis. They always hate to let go of power.