The Dow For the week of 03/14/2016


While the markets have cheered the public admission that the central banks have completely failed in their quantitative easing and they will now buy more for longer, the technical profile is not as buoyant as it might appear on the surface. We have at least begun to enter the resistance area, but we have still NOT ELECTED any Weekly Bullish Reversal which stands at 17750.50. We have also not broken above the standard downtrend line on the weekly level. We have a turning point due next week. The general view in the USA is that the Fed should now raise rates since the market has recovered. If the Fed does not separate from the ECB and begins to focus on the US domestic policy objectives, then the future will be far worse.

We have the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting this week. It looks like we also have a Direction Change the week of 03/28 with an important turning point. There is no question that in Europe the ECB is confirming that the Eurozone is doomed. They have been unable to blend the divergent economies. The ECB will use the authority to expand to buy corporate bonds as a way to buy the balance sheets of banks and place a bid in the market so the banks will be willing to lend if they know they can turn around and hand-off any position to the ECB. Unfortunately, without fiscal reform, there is little hope of saving Europe now. The Sovereign Debt Crisis continues to unfold with no end in sight before 2020. There is no market for the the ECB to ever sell everything they have bought. This will all catch up to us with a bang in 2017 – the year from political hell.

I cannot personally remember any moment as dramatic as this post-Cuban Missile Crisis when we were on the brink of war. Right now, we are amazingly just two or three bad elections away from 
the end of NATO, the end of the European Union, and maybe the end of the socialist order as we have known it our entire lives. Negative interest rates amounts to simply a tax on any money on what was left over.