Posted Sep 3, 2014 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; The fact that you gave us all warning of the turn in the Cycle of War coming in 2014 back at the 1998 conference and at 2011 conference, was truly amazing to watch how this has all worked out. But the stunning realization that you pinpoint Ukraine as the flash point and then said it will turn up in September which has arrived with the Russians openly invading Ukraine, I just do not know how anyone from the goldbugs to government cannot appreciate what you have done with analyzing time. They expose their own stupidity and bias by trying to criticism you on a personal level when you have shown us this is not opinion or just outright ignore you and hope you go away. People should be supporting your work and the sooner you go public the better.
Do you have any idea what makes this all work so precisely? The ECM picks events to the day, but you said this war in Ukraine would turn up starting in September. Your timing is truly amazing.
Thank you so much for showing us a new way to look at everything. I use to attend various lectures on cyclical analysis. But they seemed primitive at best and only concerned about trading some single market thinking they have conquered the world. Nobody has ever comprehended the global connectivity that you show us all the time. I really do hope the government would just for once care about society and listen to what your models really project. So many lives would be saved not to mention money from chasing absurd ideas like global warming that is obviously a natural cycle. It is a shame the analytical community does not stand up and support you rather than trying to compete with you when they cannot even understand the depth to which you have taken cyclical analysis.
Thank you once again for showing us the light.
ANSWER: Thank you. I am very glad that some people are starting to see that this is something very important that could really change the future is implemented. We are trying to take this public to protect everything and then hopefully the technology can be applied to many fields. Ego keeps the industry fragmented. Only when we crash and burn does it appear that there would be any type of unity in the analysis community. They argued Keynes was nuts until the Great Depression hit. This is just how it functions. As for a market forecasters, generally all they are doing is trying to make a buck. They are not normally inspired by lofty goals. They are content trying to develop just trading systems to sell.
Nevertheless, if you look at a chart of anything, the majority of people never look deeply and just stop at the surface. What you are really looking at is human nature – not the NASDAQ. The Global Market Watch is gathering patterns from all markets and comparing them on all markets. This is not a flat model – it is dynamic. This is why fundamental analysis fails.Far too many people think that such facts move markets. They cannot comprehend that people act in anticipation – never factual trends. If you are standing in front of me and I say see my fist, I am going to count to 10 and then punch you in the face. Will you do nothing until I actually punch you or act before I throw that punch? This is how markets moves – ANTICIPATION.
The 1987 Crash unfolded because of ANTICIPATION that the dollar would fall ANOTHER 40%, which of course never took place. The dollar had already fallen sharply after the formation of the G5 in 1985 by 40%. Nonetheless, foreign investors sold and the Japanese took their money home and began to invest domestically.
That shift in capital flows back to Japan attracted worldwide capital. This set in motion the Japanese Bubble. This is the reality of the market movements. Capital buys the high because people ANTICIPATE the market will move higher. I have stated that once interest rates ticked up, people would rush out and buy real estate. The majority will not buy anything that continues to fall in price. Once the general public saw an uptick they then ANTICIPATE that rates will then start to rise.
Government does not understand how the economy moves. This is why FDR confiscated gold because he listened to George Warren who understood that only devaluing the dollar would change the trend and then people would rush out to buy BEFORE the price would rise. We saw that same reaction in Japan in anticipation of the rise in sales taxes. We see the same with all the children being sent to America from Mexico in anticipation of amnesty. People act in ANTICIPATION in absolutely everything!
War unfolds for a few reasons. There is the Conquest Model of old that Putin ascribes to and many Russians think if Russia gets bigger it is better and it scores a victory for national pride not much different from Britain invading to retake the Falkland Islands. The American people do not share the desire of politicians to defend the world. This has become old hat. That will change when the economy turns down for them people want to punish the person who caused their loss.
Putin is by no means stupid. He is a brilliant strategist compared to the stupidity coming out of Washington. He has waged a war on every front from information to using troops in disguise. He was setting his pieces on the chess board as the West completely misread what he was doing and then boosted his domestic support by trying to hurt the Russian people who they though would overthrow Putin.
The West is incapable of playing chess with Putin. They assumed that they could intimidate with sanctions that only empower Putin domestically and turn the Russian people against the West seeing them as the aggressor.
The stupidity of the actions of the USA demonstrates their complete failure to understand how things actually function. They think they can just intimidate with the ability to apply force but they cannot even understand the economics behind the situation.
When an economy turns down, EVERY government NEEDS an external enemy to blame or else the people will turn against their government. Obama got that correct, but openly trying to create that overthrow by economic force exposes the USA as the instigator and completes the image of the enemy. Put does not have to sell the external aggressor concept. Obama did it perfectly for him.
Human nature is predictable and it takes standard amounts of time to accomplish certain goals. However, to figure all this out requires truly a supercomputer because of the global interconnectivity. You will not do this on a mere laptop. The number crunching is off the charts.