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The ECM Date October 1 = Fiscal Year-End

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Congress kicked the can down the road to precisely the ECM target date. This is when the government will go into shutdown mode. There is a greater than 50/50 chance that there will be no deal to extend the debt ceiling, which never ends. This merely reflects that there is no control over fiscal spending, for year after year they must constantly borrow more and more. With the House already in recess until after Labor Day and the Senate about to leave town this week, all of the components are in place for Congress to fail to act before the fiscal year begins on October 1.

It is clear that a battle is brewing, as leadership admitted that they are still undecided on how to even deal with this situation. It looks like the peak in the ECM is targeting October 1, which is the precise day we may see the U.S. government shutdown.