The Week in Review for the Dow

DJFOR-W 9-1-2016

Well the week after Labor Day has lived up to its reputation. The Dow crashed on time, but the burning question is – will it follow-through? The Dow peaked on the 6th following Monday’s closing. It elected the first Daily Bearish Reversal on the 7th when it closed by 18533. Obviously, we did elect the first Weekly Bearish Reversal at 18368. However, the way the Array is set up, we may see  LOWER LOW next week, but there is still system support as well as technical support.

djind-d-9-10-2016

 

the Friday closing at 18085.45 you can see came close to the midpoint in the uptrend channel which lies next week at 18048.99. The bottom of that channel lies at 17447.56 and our main Weekly Bearish Reversals 17712 and 17330. The change in trend Socrates has been warning about for September seems on point and the August high is therefore intact. The Dow has still been playing with the 18500 level coiling since this was our first target objective for a temporary high laid out back in 2011. The next such area will be the 23000 level, but that is not yet in the cards.

Of course the opening below the previous day’s low is often the kiss of death technically speaking. The Global Market Watch also identified Tuesday the 6th was the high. So far, even the pattern recognition model was on point. On the Investor Level, Socrates wrote for the 8th:

We should see a trend change come September in Dow Jones Industrials so pay attention to events ahead. Last month produced a high at 1872261 and so far we are trading neutral within last month’s trading range of 1872261 to 1824779. We need to breakout of this range to confirm the direction. Therefore, a close above will be bullish and a close below will warn of a possible decline. As of the close of Wed. Sep. 7, 2016, the market is immediately in a neutral position for right now with still an underlying bearish tone. Dow Jones Industrials closed today at 1852614 and is trading up about 631.9% for the year from last year’s closing of 1742503. Thus far, we have been trading down for the past day, but this has been an inside trading session warning caution following the high established Tue. Sep. 6, 2016.

From a timing perspective, it still appears to be choppy ahead. Next week may produce a lower low, and now the 18017 level will become an important number for the close of September. If we close ABOVE this level, then the market will turn back up. A close below would imply an October low, then a rally back up in November, and a potential drop back into January. We will be looking at the long-term and how to position ourselves for 2017 and beyond at the WEC in November.

Our daily indicators have not yet turned all bearish:

Daily Level
Indicator Description… Trend

Immediate Trend ……….. (Bearish)
Short-Term Momentum ……. (Bearish)
Short-Term Trend ………. (Bearish)
Intermediate Momentum ….. (Bearish)
Intermediate Trend …….. (Bearish)
Long-Term Trend ……….. (Bearish)
Cyclical Strength………. (Bearish)
Broader Trend …………. (Bearish)
Long-Term Cyclical Trend .. BULLISH

The Weekly indicators turned bearish short-term but not intermediate to long-term.

Weekly Level
Indicator Description… Trend

Immediate Trend ……….. (Bearish)
Short-Term Momentum ……. (Bearish)
Short-Term Trend ………. (Bearish)
Intermediate Momentum ….. (Bearish)
Intermediate Trend …….. BULLISH
Long-Term Trend ……….. BULLISH
Cyclical Strength………. BULLISH
Broader Trend …………. BULLISH
Long-Term Cyclical Trend .. BULLISH

Our Monthly Indicators are still intact.

Monthly Level
Indicator Description… TrendImmediate Trend ……….. – Neutral –
Short-Term Momentum ……. BULLISH
Short-Term Trend ………. BULLISH
Intermediate Momentum ….. BULLISH
Intermediate Trend …….. BULLISH
Long-Term Trend ……….. BULLISH
Cyclical Strength………. BULLISH
Broader Trend …………. BULLISH
Long-Term Cyclical Trend .. BULLISH