Posted Oct 3, 2022 by Martin Armstrong
The title speaks for itself. The Fed is going to continue raising rates until inflation shows notable improvement. Some still question whether the Fed will ease on its hawkish policies, but there is absolutely every indication to believe they will continue at full speed. Core PCE rose 4.9% in August from the year prior and increased 0.6% for the month.
Before the aforementioned data was released, Chicago Federal Reserve President Charles Evans said he was “cautiously optimistic” that the US could avoid a recession. “There are lags in monetary policy and we have moved expeditiously. We have done three 75 basis point increases in a row and there is a talk of more to get to that 4.25% to 4.5% by the end of the year, you’re not leaving much time to sort of look at each monthly release,” Evans, who is set to retire next year, said.
The truth of the matter is that the White House simply changed the definition of a recession. The majority is hurting financially right now, and I don’t think we need the talking heads to tell us that we are already in a recession. The typical analysis looks only at domestic conditions, but internationally, most central banks are in the process of raising rates and backtracking on failed QE policies.
Every month there are reports of the market being “spooked” by rate hikes. People come on TV and act surprised that the Fed has the audacity to raise rates yet again. Why? Powell stated in every possible way that the FOMC will raise rates for “some time.” In Powell language, that means rates will continue to rise for a while. The computer foresees havoc going into 2023. Things must get worse before they become better. Unemployment must rise, rates must go higher, and you must adjust your strategy accordingly.