Blog/2016 U.S. Presidential Election
Posted Aug 23, 2015 by Martin Armstrong
A false move is measured from the high, not current time. Therefore, a FALSE MOVE would be two to three months from the May high in the Dow, which means an August low. That can be on a closing basis with an intraday in September and a rally for the close, or it is just an August intraday low.
CAUTION: this does not apply to the NASDAQ. The Dow led the way up out of the 2009 low, and then the S&P 500 took the lead. Finally, NASDAQ took the lead and made its high in July. Therefore, if we have a perfect FALSE MOVE, then we should see the low in August for the Dow and most likely in the S&P 500. However, the NASDAQ could make new lows in September. If that happens while the August low holds in the Dow, then we are indeed more likely than not staging a FALSE MOVE.
The real focus for this particular ECM turning point is the bond market and the bubble in government. This decline we warned about from the May high was NECESSARY to scare capital, causing it to rush back to government paper at negative interest rates. That will complete the bubble for this wave.
It seems if you use the word “CRASH” then everyone assumes you mean the share markets. NO! This time it is a crash in government, which is now reflected in politics as well. CONFIDENCE in career politicians is collapsing, and those in politics and the press are beside themselves. The press is trying very hard to stop Trump to ensure the establishment prevails, and we will be screwed with no change as usual. Interesting polls show Trump is bringing in the youth and Bush is just not electable by the under 35 crowd. The same is unfolding in the Democratic camp. The youth could care less that Hillary is a woman; the older feminists are the ones who would vote for a woman regardless what she says or does. They are not pleased with Trump’s wife either who is 24 years younger. She would probably make the most beautiful first lady in history.
This target 2016 in politics is anything but politics as usual on a global scale. The old career politicians have overstayed their welcome — it is time to get out of town! This is all about the ECM — 2015.75 should be the PEAK in government — not stock markets. Everything is connected. This is not just about the stock market and gold. There is a lot more on the table here and people are oblivious to the global trend these days.