Blog/Interest Rates

The Yield Curve

QUESTION: At the Institutional WEC session in 2016, you forecast that rates would rise but that the long-end would produce a positive yield for the next two years [...]

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Rogoff Tells Central Banks More Negative Interest Rates Will Be Needed

Kenneth Rogoff,  the Professor of Economics at Harvard University, is stuck in a time warp where he cannot think out of the box even once. He is telling the [...]

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Bonds & Stocks Rally – What’s Going On?

This coming week is what we would call in horse racing a trifecta with former FBI director James Comey’s testimony, the U.K. election, and the ECB monetary-policy [...]

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Interest Rates Up & Bonds Up?

While the Fed may be raising rates, there is still a flight to quality underway that is giving a bid to US Treasury issues. Low Treasury yields may remain the norm [...]

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New Argument to Raise Rates – Rent Inflation!

There are those in the Fed who are desperate to find an excuse to raise interest rates. The one being bantered about is the Fed needs to raise rates to help the [...]

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The Future – Putting it All Together

This is the year of political hell. The question is not about supporting one side or the other. This is a time that calls for us not to be small petty creatures but [...]

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Bonds v Shares

QUESTION: Dear Mr. Armstrong As a long time reader I rarely see you mention the possible long term benefits of also holding corporate bonds. I understand the [...]

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Do Lower Interest Rates Promote Deflation?

QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; You have said that the only way to reverse the deflation is to raise interest rates not lower them. I understand that the low rates only [...]

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Does the Fed Fear a Dollar Rally & Bond Crash?

  QUESTION: Numerous people have asked: Does the FED actually also see these trends coming (strong US dollar, bond crash) ? K. ANSWER: Yes. The Fed has sent [...]

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Fed has become World Central Bank

The U.S. Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged yet strongly indicated that it could still tighten monetary policy by the end of this year as the labor [...]

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