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Economics

The Majority Must be Wrong

QUESTION: I asked GOK who thinks the stock market will crash. It gave a list of people all expecting a crash. It also noted that Buffet was bearish and J.P. Morgan...

Misleading Q2 US GDP Figure

The U.S. economy did post a headline-grabbing 3.3% gain in Q2, but that figure is misleading. It’s driven largely by the collapse in imports—not by true...

PRIVATE BLOG – UK & France in Need of IMF Bailouts – Here We Go

PRIVATE BLOG – UK & France in Need of IMF Bailouts – Here We Go Private blog posts are exclusively available to Socrates subscribers. To sign-up for...

The Recession is Far More Complex Than Most Expect

QUESTION: Your model has projected a recession into 2028. ZeroHedge publishes “If everything is going to be just fine, why are thousands of stores closing all...

Bureau of Labor Statistics Data has ALWAYS Been Problematic

Erika McEntarfer, the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) commissioner, has been fired by President Donald Trump due to the weak jobs report. Trump accused the...

Consumer Sentiment Not Indicative of Consumer Spending

Consumer sentiment remained elevated for the second consecutive month but remains worse than in December 2024, according to the University of Michigan’s Surveys...

Why US GDP Rose 3% Q2 2025

Data from the Commerce Department shows that the US gross domestic product rose 3% in Q2 on a seasonally inflation-adjusted basis. The figure may have surpassed...

US Inflation Rises in June

Core inflation’s mild “only” 2.9% annualized rise is not cause for relief. Government agencies, central banks, and regulators all react to data. The Fed,...

Will Mass Deporation Harm US GDP?

The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas believes that mass deportation efforts will negatively impact US GDP. Projections speculate that GDP could decline by nearly a...

June Minutes Report Decoded

The Minutes Report by the Federal Reserve indicates that the central bank is unlikely to cut rates at the next Federal Open Market Committee meeting on July 29-30....