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Forecasting That You Can Do As Well

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Reversals Timing

QUESTION: Marty, in the new Gold report on page 34 you state that the $1309 is the yearly number but you said “Therefore, we have two Weekly Bullish Reversals at 1272 and 1287.50 that may provide the resistance. A failure to close above these numbers the week of March 14, warns that what will not move up, often turns down.” How do you determine the level a market will stop at?

Thanks for the education


ANSWER: Some people expect analysts to be more like gurus, but they are typically fools searching for a bigger fool. The only thing we can do is look at the trend. Those who have not read the “2016 Gold Report” have no idea what this talk of $0.30 cents is even about. Some think this is personally about me, but they are still in their cages and cannot escape. Following some analyst because he is “hot” is stupid, because, like gambling at a casino, sometimes you are hot and sometimes you are not. They are incapable of taking one step forward out of the personal attribution and blame game.

Personally, I cannot forecast markets consistently from a personal opinion. Nobody can. This is about learning how to use the model to understand how the market speaks to us. If you understand this translation game, you will understand how the markets show us the future. If you shed your personal bias and stop searching for the perfect guru, hopefully, you can escape the cage in which society lives. Then you will not need me to interpret what the model says as the markets are yelling, “Hey look at this!” So when someone puts out a forecast on a personal level, I just look at them and realize they are not quite ready to take that step out of the cage in which they live. This is NOT about me; there is a huge difference between what I “think” and what the model is showing us.

The timing and reversals give us the key points in price and time. Which reversal a market stops at is a combination of price and time. Had we hit the Gold Weekly Bullish at $1287.50 back in January or February, then we clearly would have moved to the next at the $1309 level. I gave these targets with time, and stated if we did not close above $1287.50 by the end of the week of March 14, then gold would retest support. This is very black and white. Those who cannot grasp the IF-THEN-ELSE approach are novices. They will always lose because they cannot make that step forward to listen to markets rather than individuals. Institutions never follow opinion, as they must quantify decisions. They cannot justify moving billions because some guy said so. That would be absurd!

The market is the only forecaster whom is always correct. The fools who claim they are right and the market is wrong because someone manipulated it against them are just delusional fools. Only humans makes mistakes; not the markets. The key is to read what the markets are telling us. That cannot be done with emotions. I look at this very unemotionally; I look at one level and then the next. Time always determines the movement from one point to the next. You have a finite amount of time to accomplish a goal, and once you run out of time, well, that’s all she wrote folks.

Forecasting the trend is fairly easy. Forecasting the price level at which something stops cannot be opinion. So understanding how to read what the market is telling us is critical. Nobody can pull a number out of thin air based upon opinion. The numbers are the numbers. That has nothing to do with me personally.

As laid out in the “2016 Gold Report,” we now must focus on the closing for March. This is the third month up from the December low, which is the maximum time we can see for a reaction. Nothing has breached any key levels to imply a reversal of the long-term trend. We will create a video for those who bought the “2016 Gold Report” after the closing for March.

My goal is to help those who are interested in learning how markets move and are willing to listen to what the markets are telling us. This is the blueprint for society as a whole. Those in search of a guru are not interested in becoming a student of market behavior and should not bother reading this blog. If someone expects a guru, good luck on that. This is not a personal opinion model. I simply go by the numbers and time. Once you understand the model, you do not need my interpretation.

Even in politics, society applies the same guru stupidity. If a politician says something then they cannot possibly change positions. Come on. Life is a learning process. Opinions I held 40 years ago are not the same today. Mark Twain said it best, yet society expects guru status.

“When I was a boy of 14, my father was so ignorant I could hardly stand to have the old man around. But when I got to be 21, I was astonished at how much the old man had learned in seven years.” — Mark Twain