Posted Sep 26, 2015 by Martin Armstrong
The 1985 World Economic Conference
Back in 1985, we warned that the Sovereign Debt Crisis would emerge on 2015.75. How was 2015.75 forecast so far back? This is pi; 31.4 years into this Private Wave which began on 1985.65.
At the 1998 World Economic Conference, we put out this slide listing the sequence of events. People often wonder how we make accurate long-term forecasts. Such forecasts are only possible with a vast database. So for all those who are trying to copy our forecasts the real question is: how will you do this without data?
The revelation in forecasting is opposite of what most people assume. They think it is impossible to forecast the long-term, and assume that the short-term can be forecast by monitoring fundamental events. The truth is quite shocking: forecasting the long-term tends to be much easier than forecasting where the Dow will close tomorrow. Why? The short-term is just noise, yet it gets everyone wound up. Every $20 rally in gold brings out the charlatans claiming this time it is it. In reality, the trend cannot be manipulated or changed, even by government, for the collective forces of the free market will always win. Even Paul Volcker, former Chairman of the Fed put out his “Rediscovery of the Business Cycle” stating that the era of “new economics” (Marxist-Keynesianism), which claimed government could eliminate recessions and the business cycle, failed.
Then there was Arthur Burns, the Fed Chairman who presided over the birth of the floating exchange rate monetary system in 1971. He too wrote that the business cycle was really “invictus” (invincible). Despite those behind the curtain admitting that the free market always wins, the press, academics in general, and government constantly claim that there is no cycle and you cannot forecast the future. Then they immediately forecast strong economic growth the following year.
Why does the establishment (government, academics, and the press) claim it to be impossible when this is not the case? Even Volcker stated the business cycle was about 8 years. The plain and simple truth is that they do not want you to think there is a business cycle because then you will not need them. All they attempt to do is manipulate the people to defeat the business cycle, which NOBODY HAS EVER ACCOMPLISHED.
Well, 2015.75 is next week. Long-term forecasts are far more accurate than short-term because you cannot defeat the trend no matter what you do. It’s Just Time. You cannot make up such forecasts with personal opinion. It takes a database; you can only see the trend by correlating everything that moves. One Asian government understands this perhaps better than the West and offered $500 million for a copy of what we have.
When we say we have the largest database, it is no joke. Debt has always been the great destroyer. It has toppled every empire known to history. We have compiled debt along with currency movements back into ancient times, and cataloged ancient financial panics, as was the case in Athens back in 354BC. The chart above is of the Venetian Empire based on the gold Ducat that lasted also hundreds of years. Gold did not prevent its demise either.
We tracked debt and interest rates from the core to the peripheral economies to understand capital concentration. When capital concentrates, interest rates decline in that region. This demonstrates how the financial capital of the world migrates with time.
We have used the coinage to determine money supply. Since coin dies were hand-carved, each is unique. Experimenting with modern dies by having someone strike coins with a hammer to see how many can be produced before a die will break gives us an average. Then cataloging all the known dies results in the money supply.
We have mapped everything from the birth of coinage during the 7th century BC on through Greece, Rome, and Byzantium. With the fall of Byzantium, the financial capital shifted to India as a region. India was not a unified country, but city-states that also engaged in conquest and warfare. Just how do these people pretending to be forecasting a great crash arrive at such an “opinion” without a database? They do not understand what we are forecasting and are incapable of projecting even the turning points from a gut opinion perspective.
We have assembled “imitation” Roman coinage from the outer trading partners. We see Roman coins imitated in India back to the earliest part of the Imperial era. Yet, the history of Rome that claimed to rule the world (orbis terrarum) stood at the opposite end of the world from the strikingly similar Han Dynasty (206 BC—220 AD) in China, which also claimed to have ruled the world (tianxia). There is the History Book for Tang-Dynasty in China covering the period 618-907 AD. The text mentions 17 times what appears to be the Roman Empire and describes an envoy that sent by the Roman Emperor to China. The Roman Emperor was recorded to have been “Anton“ or Marcus Aureius Antoninus. The account of such an envoy visiting the older Han Dynasty predates the Venetian traveler Marco Polo (1254-1325 AD) by more than 1,000 years. We have assembled trade flows on everything we could lay our hands on.
As we approach 2015.75, you can see this trend changing. This 5000-year low in interest rates shows the excessive hoarding and concentration of capital in the West. We can also see the debt crisis is unfolding, which is no longer just with Greece; France and Japan experienced downgrades just last week. The trend is so obviously concentrated in our debt problems as emerging markets have issued since 2007 dollar denominated debt, which is about half that of the entire debt of the United States. We are seeing economic chaos unfold in Brazil and Venezuela as well. The insane construction of the euro has undermined the entire European banking system; the solution of the ECB: hide the truth.
The U.S. debt ceiling is coming up on the very day of the turning point, and this time religion is involved. This led to the resignation of Boehner for he has deliberately funded efforts to defeat anyone within the Republican Party who stood for fiscal conservatism. Then we have Trump rising in the polls because he is not under anyone’s control.
As 2015.75 emerges, we will move into the pi target from the start of the Economic Confidence Model on 1985.65. This will bring us to January 2017 (2017.05), which is also the target for the Cycle of War. The correlation between our models for 2017 will be the topic for the 2015 World Economic Conferences. We will have two years ahead of us and 2015.75 is just the BEGINNING – NOT THE END. This is a major change in trend of monumental proportion.