Why Many Economists Refuse to Believe That the Future Can Be Forecasted

Einstein-I cannot believe that God plays dice with the universe

When I was in school, it became obvious that there were real sciences, and then there were “social sciences” based on opinions. In physics class, you learned that there were laws and that “God did not play dice with the universe”, as Einstein similarly put it. When you went to economics class, they said not to forecast the future, for everything was a random walk, therefore we could create utopia only through economists managing the economy.

As soon as an economist proclaims that they do not believe in the ability to forecast consistently, they reveal which side of the fence they reside. To them, they will be out of a job if they cannot create utopia by manipulating society into a perfect economy of perpetual growth. Forget the fact they have never managed to do this even once.

There is no convincing them the economist who lacks any actual experience in the markets. They can say our forecasting model sounds dubious because they do not even want to investigate the regularity of the business cycle, for that would put them out of business if they cannot manipulate something. It does not matter how many observers have come out stating that there is an 18-year real estate cycle as they did at the Fed, or as Paul Volcker did in his “Rediscovery of the Business Cycle”. They willingly cling to their views and proclaim that it is all made-up, as they did to Homer until someone went out and actually followed what Homer wrote, leading to the discovery of Troy and Mycenae just to mention a few.

So no, I really have nothing to say to such people. All I will say is to stop criticizing from personal opinion, go and PROVE with valid research that there is no business cycle and you can create perpetual utopia. They have all been trying to defeat the business cycle they claim does not exist following Karl Marx, and that has resulted in the deaths of millions of people. Like Piketty, all they ever advocate is destroying freedom and controlling the people to create what they think is the type of world they would want to rule. PS: Just look at the Global Market Watch – that is the computer predicting patterns and explain how it can be right even just 50% of the time if it is all random nonsense free to be manipulated by economists and politicians who do not respect human individuality.