Posted Jun 30, 2015 by Martin Armstrong
The way people try to judge one analyst against another is like saying, “Oh, he is right and someone else is wrong.” That is unprofessional because OPINION is irrelevant and NO ONE can be correct all the time. It is humanly impossible to forecast the future based upon what someone “thinks” will or will not happen. As soon as anyone tries to engage in such comparisons, they reveal their own stupidity for it is a pointless exercise in nonsense. The only possible way to forecast any market is (1) by means of a quantitative model never fundamentally; and (2) such a model cannot work on a single market in isolation.
The analysis provided on this site is NOT my OPINION for absolutely NO ONE can stay on top of everything all the time to the point that they are NEVER wrong. The entire object of our model is to monitor the world and that takes observational power that is really beyond human capability. Once you begin to see the world in a connected way, your reality will change for what lies behind the curtain is complex and proof positive that while people will try to manipulate the world, it will never be tamed or broken.
The greatest part of the learning curve in utilizing our forecasting: (1) understand it is a computer monitoring the world simultaneously; (2) the model has three primary components Time, Price, and Pattern Recognition, and (3) the absence of human emotion and subjective “I think” analysis or prognostication. Analysts must yield the stark realization that they must yield to their human inability to always be right, as politicians must yield to the fact that they are the problem because of their human inability to resist power and self-interest.
The threshold to opening your mind to be able to trade CONSISTENTLY is to avoid subjective analysis. Comprehending that our analysis is a quantitative model and not simply personal opinion. That is the ONLY way to achieve consistency. All forecasting must be presented very black and white – IF THIS; THEN THAT; OR ELSE THAT WILL HAPPEN. This style of analysis removes human subjective judgment. Under this methodology, we allow the market to show us the correct path. Any other form of analysis is a vain attempt to judge the market based upon what you may think will happen. That cannot be consistent because the majority must always be wrong for that is the very fuel that drives the market like a pendulum going back and forth.
Each aspect of PRICE, TIME, and Pattern Recognition (Global Market Watch) is entirely independent. Therefore, we gave three levels on the Dow the 18500, 23000, and 32000/40000. When we introduce TIME, the first opportunity for a major high was 2015.75 and the three price targets would then come into play. So while the maximum objective would have been 32000/40,000 as early as 2015, we have been unable to get through the first target at 18500. Hence, if we saw a price advance to 23,000 with the TIME of the ECM (October 1, 2015), then we should expect a correction because we met both TIME and PRICE. Failing to reach that next threshold at 23,000 means the next TIME target becomes 2017. Exceeding 23,000 before TIME means you then go to the next target in PRICE, being the 32,000/40,000 area.
We identify time windows and for such targets; to form important highs or lows there MUST be the alignment of both TIME and PRICE unfolding often according to Pattern Recognition.
We use the Reversals to step in and out, letting the market guide us. So the entire object is to eliminate HUMAN emotion and judgment, which includes myself. I would sell against a Bullish Reversal based upon TIME or buy against one below also with TIME.
This is how the Reversals were situated for the 1987 Crash. We can see there was a huge gap. Breaking that PRICE target of 286.10 on the S&P 500 futures meant you then go to the next level and that was 180. The TIME was just 2 days to the ECM and that was precisely what took place.
That forecast, which became famous, was not based upon my personal opinion. It was based entirely upon this system of three separate approaches.
No, we do not use Elliot Wave or technical analysis trading patterns. Such methods are highly subject to debate and rest only upon the plain and simple observation and thus OPINION. Therefore, subjective methods of this nature are unsuitable for definitive management or trading.