Blog/Armstrong Economics 101
Posted May 2, 2016 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Mr. Armstrong; I have to admit after following you for almost 2 years now I am impressed. I was a buyer of your first gold report where you introduce me to the idea of different types of cycles from fixed to variable and your benchmarks. I have been amazed that gold bottomed to the week of the benchmark you gave in that report years in advance. How is it possible for someone to provide a date and it happens? Then you said gold would rally up to 1309. OK, it got to 1306 today. If it does not exceed that area you said it would fail. I will give you the $3. You said the Euro should rally back to 116 at the start of the year. What I am impressed with the most is that following the computer demonstrates that this has nothing to do with your personal opinion and bravado. You have dissected the markets revealing that these things move precisely to everyone’s disbelief. My question is essentially, do you think there is no randomness?
ANSWER: When I was in school, the economics professor said that we should not even try to forecast because everything is random. In physics class, the professor said nothing was random. I came to the conclusion that in economics, there was a self-interest at stake. If nothing was random, then you could not manipulate the economy. That means Keynes and Marx were wrong. Why do we need economists?
Why do we need economists? Larry Summers admitted he cannot forecast the business cycle. Moreover, why do we need career politicians who promise they can change the course of the economy if you vote for them? The majority of people do not challenge ideas. Instead, they cling to a belief no matter what evidence you present. You cannot change the mind of someone who is incapable of escaping the cage they have built around their own mind where they feel comfortable. They will believe only what they want to believe. This is why people attack me personally because they are of this group who cannot change their minds thanks to their biases. This group represents the majority of the people who indeed prefer living in a lie than in reality. They can only attack me personally because they do not want to confront reality and they might be wrong about this claimed random walk theory.
This is why the government accused me of manipulating the world economy. It was far easier to assume I had too much influence than to accept that this is not random chaos. Saying I manipulated the world economy is within their sphere because this is what they try to do. If I did not manipulate the entire world economy, then that means this must be unfolding according to some hidden order. If that is true, then how do politicians run for office promising something that is impossible? So it was far easier to blame me as if this were some James Bond movie since that is what they are trying to do rather than admit the world economy does not function as some random walk theory of a drunk through a park. I personally am not infallible. Sometimes I think something might unfold by a specific time and it takes longer. The computer has no bias. It makes no judgment based emotions. It is far better than I since I am handicapped as a human.
Here is gold from the Global Market Watch on the yearly level. This model proves above all that NOTHING IS RANDOM. This system monitors the entire world and records patterns of everything that moves. You will note there is a number in the “comment” column to the right. That is the pattern number. It applies the same pattern recognition for all markets. This is not limited per market. It learns as it goes. If it finds a new pattern it has not encountered, it records it, assigns it a number, and then tests future patterns against it. If the markets were random, this would not work. The fact that it has worked, to varying degrees across markets, proves that there is hidden order. The problem is that this goes against the self-interest of the majority. We are still living in a primitive state, unwilling to take that next leap to a new level of understanding.
So people can yell and scream and hate me all they want because this challenges their self-interest. I need not speak a word. It really does not matter. This model will function beyond my lifespan. What will they do then when I am not here to blame? Will they finally admit this is not some random walk? Will they consider that there just may be laws on how everything in the universe was designed? The grand unified theory?
Tags: Business Cycle, Global Market Watch