Blog/World Economic Conference
Posted Feb 26, 2019 by Martin Armstrong
This year we are holding a WEC in Rome, which is so appropriate not merely because of its extensive history that instructs us on how empires rise and fall, but because May is the crossroads for Europe. Besides BREXIT which PM Theresa May is now trying to delay because politicians fail completely to comprehend the role of trade and Brussels insists upon a hard border so goods do not flow into Ireland without their share of import duty taxes, the government in Italy is also on the brink of separation and it refuses to comply with the demands of Brussels for austerity. Moreover, it seeks to banish the central bankers who have failed to defend the interests of Italy over the demands of Brussels.
The US sharemarket rally has taken place on the massive capital inflows from Europe seeking safety from the political chaos. So while Americans were selling everything they could get their hands on as forecasts of a major crash loomed, the Europeans were saying thank you very much for the bargains. Here is the Dow in terms of Euro. We will be looking at the world through the eyes of currency at this session of the WEC and we will devote also some time to teach a very rare technical pattern which has not really emerged since the 1980s – the Channel Move as we call it.
Edward Gibbon wrote in his Decline and Fall of the Roman Empire:
“Her primeval state … [t]his Tarpeian rock was then a savage and solitary thicket; in the time of [Augustus], it was crowned with the golden roofs of a temple, the temple is overthrown, the gold has been pillaged, the wheel of Fortune has accomplished her revolution, and the sacred ground is again disfigured with thorns and brambles. The hill of the Capitol, on which we sit, was formerly the head of the Roman Empire, the citadel of the earth, the terror of kings; illustrated by the footsteps of so many triumphs, enriched with the spoils and tributes of so many nations. This spectacle of the world, how is it fallen! how changed! how defaced! The path of victory is obliterated by vines, and the benches of the senators are concealed by a dunghill. Cast your eyes on the Palatine hill, and seek among the shapeless and enormous fragments the marble theatre, the obelisks, the colossal statues, the porticos of Nero’s palace: survey the other hills of the city, the vacant space is interrupted only by ruins and gardens. The forum of the Roman people where they assembled to enact their laws and elect their magistrates, is now enclosed for the cultivation of pot-herbs, or thrown open for the reception of swine and buffaloes. The public and private edifices that were founded for eternity lie prostrate, naked, and broken, like the limbs of a mighty giant, and the ruin is the more visible from the stupendous relics that have survived the injuries of time and fortune.”
Indeed, the fall of empires is always set in motion by the incompetence of its leaders and their self-interest that they always put before the people they call their subjects. Rome fell because every centralized form of government has failed throughout history. Every Republic collapses into an Oligarchy. Governments will NEVER take action to prevent a crisis. That has never been in their self-interest. People will never vote for someone who says they have prevented a crisis because people will not believe something would have happened. Let the crisis hit and politicians get to investigate and ask for votes to ensure it never happens again.
The Economic Confidence Model turns in January 2020. We are preparing for the Greatest Trade of the Century, but we must look at this from everyone’s point of view which is colored through the looking glass of currency. But to trade this opportunity, DEMANDS you must have the CONFIDENCE to pull the trigger. To survive the next two years, it requires a clear understanding of how the system works which is confirmed by each market.
The failure to understand how we are all connected will result in you losing at the end of the sequence. The last domino will be your fate. Without comprehension, you will never see it coming. You need to understand the world as a hedge fund manager – not a domestic manager blind to everything outside of his domain.
So come join us where history was made. We are preparing not merely for the adoption of MMT or Modern Money Theory. The politicians will embrace this idea as they realize they are going broke and central banks cannot save the day. The MMT promoters assume that with the expansion of Quantitative Easing and its failure to produce inflation, gives them a green light to print their way out of this mess as government assumes there will be no inflation with endless expansion of money as QE demonstrated.
So welcome to the next crisis on our doorstep. There is no other place where such a WEC would be more appropriate.