The Euro and Why the Dollar Will Not Be Dethroned


In the Eurozone, Mario Draghi has announced that his quantitative easing has failed to produce inflation as everyone assumed. After nine months of buying various government debt, the economy is still contracting and their inflated inflation numbers are coming in at .01%. Draghi has announced that they will now buy 33% of government debt issues, which is up from 25%.

The euro has an EXTREMELY RARE virtual TRIPLE WEEKLY BEARISH REVERSAL at 10815. This is not looking very good for Europe. Our model is setting up for the massive dollar rally that the dollar haters just cannot comprehend. They swear the dollar will collapse and the U.S. will lose its reserve currency status out of thin air. They are SO DEAD WRONG; it is a shame for we are about to enter a period where there will not be a single asset class standing without its ardent supporters suffering huge losses.

The HIGHER the dollar rallies, the more likely it is to create an economic storm and losses. If the dollar declines, then all those who issued dollar debt will win. How do we create an economic downturn with a declining dollar? Corporate profits will rise, not fall, and the $9 trillion in dollar-denominated debt will reap huge profits instead of losses.

Then there are the crazies who cannot see the forest for the trees; they send in e-mails that say I am wrong and the dollar will collapse because Russia is abandoning the dollar. They are so lost in thinking that Russia is somehow a major holder of dollars. What is the alternative? There is nothing. A rise in the dollar will inflict the greatest losses worldwide and then the cry for an independent reserve currency will emerge. A declining dollar will NOT dethrone it.