Blog/Armstrong Economics 101
Posted Apr 11, 2016 by Martin Armstrong
We are finishing up the “Pension Crisis – The Next Nightmare,” which is a special report outlining the next global meltdown. Germany’s Federal Finance Minister Schaeuble is now openly blaming Mario Draghi for the electoral success of the AFD in Germany, which is the Alternative for Germany (In German: Alternative für Deutschland, AfD). The AFD is a right-wing populist party that is also the Eurosceptic political party in Germany. The AFD has risen from 0% to nearly 40% in about 2 years.
Additionally, Schaeuble seems to be rumbling that the ECB is creating a huge problem with negative interest rates. If the ECB does not change its monetary policy radically and soon, Germany will be engulfed in its own major pension crisis. Central banks may be forced to raise rates to try to bail out pension funds. This has nothing to do with the economic trends.
The pension crisis is becoming a real nightmare for federal and state budgets and now depend on exceptionally low interest rates while pension funds are going bankrupt. Raising rates to help the pension funds will wipe out government budgets. This entire idea of Keynesian economics, which says that government is capable of managing the economy by raising and lowering interest rates, is a complete disaster. These people are incapable of forecasting the economy, as former Secretary of the Treasury Larry Summers openly admitted to Bloomberg TV. Those who think they are endowed with magical powers to manipulate society have created a complete mess and they are too brain-dead to realize the consequences. Our computer is extremely bearish on government. The turning point (2015.75) was the PEAK IN GOVERNMENT. Ever since that turning point, we have begun the downhill move that is destined to collapse into January 2020 (2020.05).
Schaeuble, of course, will not accept any blame for screwing up Germany. He must blame someone and he is turning against Draghi. This is to be expected as we move ahead into the 4.3-year declining leg of the Economic Confidence Model. We are likely to see pressure build until it creates a change in the monetary system as early as 2018.895. What will the world will look like on the other side of 2020.05? We will deal with that at the World Economic Conference after the elections in November. We will make an announcement once we finalize the dates and location for the next conference.