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Sovereign Debt Crisis – Cycle Due 2017

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QUESTION: Hi Martin It’s been 30 years since I first saw you speak and this year I’m taking my son to Orlando to see you for the first time. How time flies. That said why have you not talked about the 86 year Sovereign Debt cycle that is forecasting a Great Depression for 2017. Have the monetary powers delayed this?

Thanks for all you do.

See you in November.


ANSWER: No. 2017 is the start of this whole mess. We have bank runs in Greece because the prevailing view is that Merkel will not relent and Greece cannot pay. This is why we are holding two conferences this year because it is very important and it is why I highlighted Greece in the report we issued for 2017.

BTW, thank you for this old hand drawn chart I did so long ago. I didn’t have a copy of it. People do not realize that these forecasts were made decades ago.

DJ20-40-M in BP

We also marked that 2009 would be the turning point 30 years ago. This was equivalent to the 1923 turning point in a basket of currencies back then. So the 2009 target was correct and this implies that the 2017 target should also be correct. This year 2017 will be just the beginning.