Posted Mar 8, 2019 by Martin Armstrong
The results of my life research, reading every newspaper story going into the bull market of the Roaring ’20s and the Great Depression revealed that before the high in 1929, when interest rates were rising, people interpreted it as BULLISH for it demonstrated that there was STILL a demand for money. Indeed, interest rates decline when people are not interested in borrowing, and as such, stock markets historically decline. It was this correlation that revealed the shift in confidence between the PUBLIC sector and the PRIVATE sector. This is why they used Quantitative Easing believing foolishly that if they lower rates, people will finally borrow.
Following the Great Depression, the confidence shifted to the government with FDR’s New Deal. That is when the bond market outperforms stocks as the confidence shifts. In the current wave, the confidence has shifted back to the PRIVATE sector and this is what the Gallup Poll is showing — 35% of American believe that the government is the NUMBER ONE PROBLEM.
Indeed, 42% of Americans have identified themselves as independents in 2017, up from 39% in 2016. Everything that the model has been forecasting has been spot on.
A November Gallup poll found that 54% of Democrats were actually Democratic-leaning independents who wanted the party to become “more moderate,” while only 41% wanted it to be more left. That contrasted with the Republicans and their allies, 57% of whom wanted a more conservative party with less government and lower taxes. Meanwhile, the most startling Gallup Poll to date, taken on Feb 18th, 2019, after the midterm elections, reported that 35% of Americans now believe that government/leadership is the top problem facing the country. Only 11% cited Donald Trump while 18% cited gridlock.
In politics, as of February 2019, the Gallup Poll shows it is a dead heat between people who identify themselves as Democrat (30%) or Republican (31%). However, those who identify themselves as independent came in at 37%. Now there are more people joining the ranks of independent than there are party members on either side. Fox News has replaced CNN as the #1 news station and Fox was ranked the “most trusted” American TV news brand in the United States. It came in second just behind only the British-based BBC. Yet in Britain itself, only one in six people trust the BBC.