Posted May 31, 2018 by Martin Armstrong
I do not know how else to say this. Cryptocurrencies are an ASSET CLASS and they are something to TRADE. All this stupid nonsense that they will revise the world monetary system with no pain and governments will be brought to the knees without firing a shot, I really do not know who makes up this nonsense. They clearly do not look at history nor do they understand human nature. We WILL crash and I hope the BURN then becomes possible where we get reasonable reform without the totalitarianism that is so common.
Cryptocurrencies are a trading vehicle – that’s it! It will by no means produce sweeping reform without the crash and burn. New ideas are adopted ONLY after a crash and burn. They called Keynes a nutjob and his ideas would be inflationary because the prevailing view was austerity. ONLY after the Great Depression did they turn to Keynes – NOT before.
As for the smartass remark, I am “too told” to understand the new age, I have been a programmer my whole life and what we have developed is still far ahead of the current norm. The last time I heard that remark was when I was an adviser to Temple University. Merrill Lynch was trying to sell the way to leverage your returns which ended blowing up Orange County California and resulted in lawsuits of over $2 billion from various sources back in 1994. The scheme was to buy 30-year bonds, short 10-year against them, and capture the difference. Then leverage $1 million into $10 million and the tiny spread would double the interest rate on the original capital. The Temple Board told them I had to approve it. The analysts/salesmen flew in, showed me the scheme, I rejected it and warned them that if interest rates rose, the trade would explode in their face. Their losses would be reversed leveraged. They went back to Chicago, reworked the numbers, flew back and said see it would be a break even. I laughed, told them they assumed they would be able to get out of a trade that went bad without volatility. That was a fool’s game. I explained that this was the trust fund for the university they wanted to speculate with. I would not approve it. They then told the board I was “too old” to understand the “new way” to make money.
So the last time I was “too old” to understand the “new way” to make money was when I was 45. Human nature is always the same. When they have to say I’m “too old”, it means they have no legitimate argument to put forth. Such transformations of this magnitude take decades. NOT a single one of the big IT companies are doing ANYTHING with cryptocurrencies. Just trade it and be happy. Why put out this nonsense how it will change the world in a matter of weeks or months when that is absurd. They rejected Keynes. It took the collapse of the world monetary system before they adopted Keynesianism. There is NO POSSIBLE WAY that cryptocurrencies will just change the world without a CRASH & BURN. Only after such an event will ideas surface to suggest reforming the system.