Posted Dec 31, 2013 by Martin Armstrong
I cannot do stock trading on the exchange as I will always loose.Trading is a zero sum business if you include seller, buyer and bank/broker fees.I believe that the winner on trading are the banks and the brokers. I believe that “Naked” trading and speculation by the big banks has ruined the free market and the capitalistic system.
I believe that Armstrong Economics will only be successful as long as you follow the big banks.
I wish you a happy new year.
REPLY: Day Trading is a full-time job and many people produce more in fees than they earn. The real TRADING is simply moving with the overall trend. You would be long primarily from a strategic position that may be held for months or years. It is selling the high in gold in 2011 and flipping into stocks. Hold a position when it declines long-term is dangerous. Long-term bear markets decline sometimes to one-third or half your life. The Nikkei declined for 23 years. Gold for 19 years. That is way too long to hold on to something and pray for a recovery.
The point is if you LEARN how the business cycle moves, you will be successful. Gold may bottom here in 2014. I also warned it could invert and bottom in 2015. Look at the stocks. They have exploded since 2011. This is about economic survival – not just one market. If you see the world for what it is, you will move with the flows rather than clinging to one thing to preserve your future. What if you are wrong? They you will try to blame someone else for your unwillingness to the see the world for what it truly is – a complex network of interconnections.
If you open your mind’s eye and allow yourself to see the interconnections that are like a rain forest with millions or species all interacting. If you remove just one, you will set off a chain reaction that will readjust the entire complex system. That one species may have been the exclusive food source of another that now dies out. The chain reaction becomes a tidal wave of complexity. The entire complex system can collapse to varying degrees. Look at the koala bears in Australia. They only eat the leaves on one tree. Remove those trees and you will kill the koala bears. Everything that happens is for a reason and has consequences. This is the system upon which everything in the universe was constructed. It is the same design everywhere – it is fractal.
Waiting for your day to make real money focused in just one market will be disaster. Understanding that when one market moves lower, it is being offset by another’s rise. Some economies bottom at the peak in the ECM wave while others peak. Gold did not explode to the upside until the ECM turned down in 2007. This is a divine scheme how everything works in harmony. Governments have been trying to manipulate it to control it. The big banks tried to manipulate it to make money. It cannot be manipulated for everything in interconnected. Lower interest rates to help banks, you render pension funds insolvent.
THIS IS STRATEGIC TRADING NOT DAY TRADING
As far as following the big banks, they are being driven out of proprietary trading because of their greed and manipulations. They will start to go bust after 2015.75 all by themselves. The days of them being bailed out for their bad trades are over, In Europe and the USA there is no political will to keep writing checks for their disastrous trades based upon bribes and rigging rather than analysis and judgement. The banks never went with the cycle. They were too impatient for that. It was all about quarterly earnings. Just watch.