Was the Fate of the Ruble Decided Back in 1998?

RUBLEF-M 2-15-2015

 

The collapse of the Russian Ruble in 1998 that set in motion Long-Term Capital Management default that necessitated the first bailout of the bankers in NYC for their reckless perfect trades, technically appears to have set in motion the events of Russia thereafter. As we can see from the chart of the Ruble expressed in dollars, there was never a major recovery. The recent drop in the Ruble effectively retested the momentum decline from 1998.

RUBFOR-M 2-15-2015

 

The Ruble is showing a key target in time as March and then we see rising volatility going into the turn of the ECM for Sept 30th/Oct 1st. We also should see a rise in volatility come May.

Clearly, the overall crisis in world currency markets including the Ruble are not over yet and appear to be poised for wild times ahead.