The US Share Market has confused many and those who swear we are headed into a 1929 crash just cannot comprehend this is a global economy. We have to be concerned about July for there is the potential for a July high with a low in Oct/Nov. The volatility will begin to rise come September and reach its first high around December/January. The potential for the Dow to rise up to the Breakout Line from the 2009 low remains intact. That would be a target of almost 26,000 by October 1, 2015.
The Breakout Channel from the June 2012 low forms a nice guide channel in the cash S&P 500. We can see the shift where we were penetrating the bottom of the channel has now inverted so we penetrate the top now. The top of that channel for July resides at:
7/07 198030 – 7/14 198562 – 7/21 199095 – 7/28 199627 – 8/04 200159
This will provide both the resistance and support to pay attention to this month. The timing for turning points is also quite clear.
The key week looks to be 7/21 with a slight tendency to be briefly early the week of 7/14.
Watch the reversals and these will provide us with a good guide. A July low at that time could result in a reversal rally into the October time period whereas a high at that time could produce a low in October.