Posted Jan 31, 2014 by Martin Armstrong
Regarding the Global Market Watch:
Mr. Armstrong; Your Global Market Watch called for a crash in gold when it made a new high and closed higher. The next day it indeed crashed as if it were in a free-fall. How is it possible to predict a crash when it moved higher?
Also, on your market watch where you have Weekly Trend and Monthly Trend. Is the weekly for the week (Monday thru Friday) that we are currently in or for the next 5 trading days beginning with today? Is the monthly for the current month we are in (January-December) or for the next say 20-25 trading days beginning today?
Since cycles are already in motion, how far in advance are the daily trends known. Seeing them at the end of the day after they have already happened is a little suspect.
Thank you for sharing your knowledge through your site – I feel that I could benefit immensely if I could only understand it better.
ANSWER: The Global Market Watch is a completely different system. It is working entirely off of patterns and the second page gives the pattern number for that day. This new advanced version is quite different from the old version. Its capacity is really unlimited to create its own knowledge base and anything it encounters that is different from the past it records and then assigns a number to that pattern. In this manner, it becomes a cognitive learning machine whereby I have not hard-wired specific patterns to look for. The old code had some hard-wiring, but it became obvious that such a system would not work for the pattern combinations were tremendous. I am not even sure if there is a limit. Every single aspect is measured and plotted from how it opens to how that session closed. The most subtle details are never over-looked.
The current week and month are DYNAMIC – not rolling. So as far as Monday, the computer considered that as a completed week. It then adds Tuesday and recalculates those two days as if it were the complete week. In this way, we can see the daily price action impact on weekly and monthly levels. Only when that week or month is complete will the computer write that into the file as final and complete and start again.
The Training Session Conference (March 23rd) will demonstrate this fascinating dynamic structure of the markets and how to trade them in more detail. However, it is always yourself that is your trading opponent – not some conspiracy group lurking in the shadows. We have a human tendency to buy when everyone else is buying and panic when the herd panics. How to survive your own trading decisions is absolutely critical. It requires pure CONFIDENCE for if you always question if you are on the right path, then you will recheck everything and not get caught up in the herd. Losses take place when you blame others when in fact the Global Market Watch proves that pattern recognition can predict the next day without knowing any fundamentals or conspiracy groups.
The Global Market Watch is NON-HUMAN, so it is absolute perfection insofar as being free from the herd mentality. It is not 100% correct every day because like a child, it is a cognitive learning machine and it will quickly adapt to new changes. It comprehends that doing the same thing and expecting a different result is the definition of insanity. So its design is SUPER-HUMAN and it assumes there is always something new to learn.
There is a new movie coming out that I have received a few email about starring Johnnie Depp – Transcendence. Yes this is a movie loosely in part on what I have been doing in constructing a computer with the collective knowledge base of humanity. However, the film takes it to the next step and the plot centers around the fact that they gave this computer the full range of human emotion. FIRST, I will say I do not believe that is actually possible, and SECOND, it is something that would defeat the objective. It makes for great SciFi film thrillers, but Transcendence, as a programmer, I do not believe is even possible nor truly advisable. Yes – I will go watch it. It was Jules Verne who wrote about submarines and they thought he was nuts as well. As a programmer who has tried to map the way the brain processes data, I do not believe it is remotely possible to achieve the full range of human emotion in a machine other than mimicking. I am not convinced that if your create enough capacity, consciousness just emerges from nowhere.
So my goal has been to create a machine that will survive me, will provide us with purely intelligence FREE of emotion, and establish a collective ongoing knowledge base that just may help us understand how the world really functions in a complex dynamic network. Can you imagine if courts of law were administered by such a machine without human emotion? There would be no corruption – just the facts. You could not bribe the judge or appoint your brother-in-law.* Government could not exempt itself from the same laws. Snowden would not be the traitor, it would be those who are trying to prosecute him for it is the people who are the sovereign, not government officials. Interesting concept.
* To be a Judge in an agency like the SEC or CFTC, you do not even have to have any degree in law. There is absolutely no requirement to be a judge other than you know somebody.