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Understanding Energy Models

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IBEUUS-D 12-2-2015 Energy

QUESTION: Your energy model turned negative on the daily level just before the rally in the euro. That meant the market was then oversold if I understood your explanations.

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ANSWER: Yes, the fact that we came down to a cluster of reversals not to mention the year pivot at 10530 and the energy model turned negative December 1st confirmed that the market was oversold. The Energy Model reflects the amount of excess energy within a market. Showing it turned negative confirmed it was becoming oversold. Then you were against a group of reversals closely separated. Hence, the carry trade was very heavy.