QUESTION:
Dear Martin:
Thanks for all the work, one thing I admire is that you are providing insight in to how the world works by making us think.
Honestly, when I read your blog post “Wine industry confirms same trend in Energy” I thought this guy is nuts… then I went back and read your blog “Cycles and the Flow of Time”.
Something “clicked” and I’m asking your feedback if something clicked into forward gear or neutral.
Wine and Energy have one thing in common… real estate ( thinking Linearly). However if one uses “Relativity Theory”, we can go deeper. Relativity says,Essentially,when you measure an object ( in this case price) to determine it’s velocity, momentum and how it experiences time you must measure it in relation to something else.
I’m guessing that Wine and Energy move through time in a similar fashion. They don’t really affect one another, they merely experience time in the same way. One may move faster, slower and with less or more momentum but they correlate in how they experience time. To summarize ( as an example) Oil (looking at it without another frame of reference) was going down in price, but in this case you are using “time” to explain how it experiences “time” it may or may not have been in a down trend ( you don’t know because there is no frame of reference). Bring in the Wine Industry, it may move slower or faster, but in the same direction, it may have similar, strong or less momentum, but in the same direction over time. When wine went down, then it was confirmed that oil was in a down trend. ( or vice versa).
Who knows, maybe as another confirmation, we may find that the milk output of goats experiences time in the same way as oil and wine.
This is why you say that everything needs to be compared to everything.
Second, we view price and cycles more like a piece of thread. Take a piece of thread, and make a wave, look at it from all sides and it looks the same. This is how cycles are viewed and it is not correct.
Cycles also experience space, and cycles in space look more like a ribbon. Look at a ribbon from the side view ( it looks like a piece of thread), look at the ribbon from the top, front and back views… suddenly it has width. Now take that ribbon and twist it while keeping the cycle shape, and all of a sudden things change. The nadir may be wide ( meaning a bottom which bounces against support and resistance), and the top may be thin ( like the thread) meaning that once support is broken we are on the way down.
This is why you speak of thinking in 3 dimensions.
So, am I on the right track ?
Best Regards,
SS
ANSWER: Yes. It is not merely real estate. You are overlooking the common element – human nature. Does it take a given amount of time for a particular commodity to move? Or is it that the TIME is a constant factor and the mover and shaker is human nature? If we assume the object rather than the catalyst, commonality remains hidden. Wine and Oil appear to be different only on the surface. Yet they both reveal a trend of expanding production into the high based upon human decisions predicated upon confidence at that moment for the majority assume whatever trend is in motion remains in motion. Then the collapse in confidence drives the price down. This is why every investigation of a crash is unable to find the culprit. The truth lies simply in the actions of the majority. Scare the herd and you create a stampede and panic.
The difference in the rate of change of course exists unique to each instrument. However, the trend is the common bond and that reflects back to the trend in the catalyst – not the instrument. Observing TIME as a fourth dimension separate and apart from the “fundamentals” reveals a whole new world.
