Posted Aug 12, 2014 by Martin Armstrong
Many people are always skeptical about forecasting for they first tend to confuse what we do with others who just express opinions. Secondly, they assume because you cannot predict the closing price of the Dow Jones tomorrow, then how can you possibly forecast years and decades in advance? This paradox incorporates trends, connectivity with cause and effect as well as presumptions. If you are going to investigate anything, you must first clear your mind and assume you know nothing. Just let the subject matter unfold and observe how it does so without preconceived ideas. Then and only then will you reach the truth. You will never discover anything new if you keep your mind closed.
Here was our forecast slide from the 1998 World Economic Conference. Some people have asked how can you be so correct long-term? The answer is understanding how markets function in connection with everything else around them. Each event sets in motion the next. There is a cause and effect where the effect becomes the next cause. Capital always moves looking for the next trade and it is prejudiced always rejecting whatever sector the last bubble hit. Therefore, they lose money on real estate, they try some other investment. They do not try to see the common pattern between all bubbles for what people are concentrated in at any given moment is not what they will always be attached to.
Our forecast on Russia became rather famous and even had the CIA then wanted our model. We had forecast the low for gold in 1999 years in advance and then projected oil would rise to $100. Ok it rallied from $10 to more than $100 by 2007. We got the timing right and the general price advance.
The 2002 target was the ECM and the 2007 target was the next ECM. The Sovereign Debt Crisis I was forecasting since the early 1990s with the 2009 target that was 2 years after 2007. You will see after 2015.75 the economic pressure will tear apart Europe at every level. I have already stated that the change in political systems is due 2032 and the end of this wave.
Here is a map of the flow of capital. The 2007 bubble was real estate. We then forecast that the stock market would take off and make new highs doing into this wave. Barrons even reported that forecast in 2011. This is NOT luck nor is it OPINION. This is real research and approaching the subject matter with unbiased ideas to discover how things unfold. The last bubble was Real Estate, we got the commodity gold bubble on the 13 year target from 1999, this ONLY left equities in the face of the coming Sovereign Debt Crisis that rules out bonds. Understanding HOW and WHEN these markets move is the key to successful investing and economic survival.
Those who attended the 2011 World Economic Conference saw this slide. War has turned up right on target in 2014 and so many people are just amazed. But nothing takes places in isolation. Absolutely everything is connected. What you have to come to grips with is that the trends are set in motion long-term and cannot be altered. Perhaps we can reduce the volatility at best, but that is the extent of it. No matter what you think, the long-term is NOT spontaneous.
These World Economic Conferences are important from the perspective that once you understand HOW the world really functions, then you will have the courage to act when the time is right. Yes there are people who hate my guts because they want society to believe everything is random. How can a politician run for office with the slogan change if they really cannot alter the trend? The banks and government hold the press by the reins and they will not report on any such discovery for this is technology they do not want anyone to even think about. They will make up fake documents, lose whatever they can, anything they need to do just to prevent change.
The banks told the government I was manipulating the world economy because quite honestly they do not understand how the markets function. They bribe and manipulate so when they lose they argued it was me and I simply had more minions. True, I had over $3 trillion under advisory contract. But that was long-term strategic management not short-term trading. You cannot turn an aircraft carrier as you can a small speed-boat. True, I ran around the world and we have about 25,000 clients attending conferences. However, the theory hurled at me by the CFTC was I just said something and they all stood up like robots and did what I said. What they fail to grasp is that NOBODY will act UNTIL they have the confidence of their convictions.
So such allegations are suited for comic books – not the real world. Even if everyone did act in such a manner, nothing would change from the business cycle since that is what they would be following. I can guarantee the theory is bogus for even if everyone did as I said and that advise was opposite of the trend, we would all lose. Nobody can alter the trend for it is set in motion long-term and each event is a consequence of the last. You cannot break that chain of events for everything is deeply connected including weather. Yes – even the global warming is nonsense and part of the trend. Don’t worry. The north pole is moving toward Russia and Europe will get colder much faster. Everything is always in motion. Understand change and move with it. There is no other way.