The Euro

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IBEUUS-Q 4-1-2015


The Euro closed the month at 10742 and then there was a huge fight back and forth at 10765 the following day. This is a LONG-TERM signal, not short-term. It is serious for this confirms the broader trend moving forward. However, on the Quarterly level we also elected 10970 and 11983. The first will provide the initial reaction resistance on a closing basis. The latter is the major reactionary resistance followed by the technical resistance at the 12313 level. Support lies at the 10164 level.

IBEUFR-Q 4-1-2015


Our timing models on the Quarterly level have been showing what we have been warning about. We do not expect to break the 80 cent level right now. That is way too much short-term.This is a long-term view not immediate. What we have to watch closely here is this quarter and the the last quarter this year here in 2015. The big turning points are the 3rd quarter next year 2016 and the 4th quarter 2017. These are followed by Directional Changes. as well.

At this point the daily bullish Reversal stands at the 11035 level so a closing above that would tend to point to the 11350 to 11500 level. The Weekly level show shows the resistance at the 11450-11540 area with a key timing target the week of 04/13. Monthly resistance starts at the 11250 area then the 12300-12600 zone. The Quarterly resistance is really at the 14000 level.

The markets in general are churning, posturing for the change in trend on the horizon. The banks have cut dealing lines and retail participation is still not here yet. After the summer, that is when things will start to get interesting.