The ECM and a 1,000 different flavors



Dear Mr. Armstrong,

based on your work on capital flows I assume there excist different ECM’s for different regions. How detailed do you calculate this models, have you got one for every continent, region or even country? I have never seen the ECM for Europe on your blog but I assume its already heading down as the capital is heading to the US for the next couple of month.

Keep up your great work


ANSWER: This picture of the ECM is the global version. Yes, we run it separately on each country and region and the starting points differ according the history of when such countries began. This does allow us to fine tune everything. You will see the complexity soon and why it takes a computer to do all the global correlations for it becomes impossible for any individual to do everything required each day on a consistent basis. It also illustrates how OPINION is pretty much useless.