Posted Sep 1, 2015 by Martin Armstrong
The failure of the Dow to close above 17007 confirms that we are not yet ready to take off to the upside. We needed a closing ABOVE 17007 to firm up the market to state definitively that the August low will hold and new highs are ahead. We needed a minimum closing ABOVE 16632 to firm up short-term support. The closing BELOW 16632 does not provide a Monthly Sell Signal; it is a warning that the Dow remains vulnerable going into September. Only a monthly closing BELOW 15550 would have been a MAJOR SELL SIGNAL that key support has held. Consequently, the close of August was not strong enough to avoid a retest of the lows. Therefore, the Dow did not finish in a position that would imply NEW LOWS ahead just yet and there was no confirmation of a bullish development.
The forecast array showed the week of the 24th as a Panic. However, the long-term turning point targets are for the week of the September 21. That will more likely than not now become an important turning point as it grows in intensity. This is not over until Obama sings.
We are at least going to see a retest of the lows and produce a lower weekly closing, unless we start to close significantly higher on a weekly basis above at least the 17875 level. Otherwise, a weekly closing below 16008 should signal a revisit of the lows during September. Only a breach of last year’s low will warn of the slingshot move setup. What would be very bearish would be a rally to retest the highs without new highs during the week of September 21, which would then warn of a crash.
Those calling for the end of the world and a 1929 type depression are only looking at the charts. They are clueless as to how everything else is setting up. Nothing is in line for such an event. Keep in mind that event created big government and socialism. This time government is in crash mode, not the private sector. Politicians will do the jumping this time. If the stock market crashed, capital would then run into bonds. Just how low do you think interest rates would go — negative 20%? Come on. This is a 5000-year low in interest rates so we will have to flip out to the upside. There is no choice in this regard.
Tags: Current Outlook, Dow Jones Industrial