Posted Aug 21, 2014 by Martin Armstrong
The primary reason we run our model on everything at each time level is to distinguish short-term moves from long-term. For those who may be relatively new, our models are highly fractal. They were originally developed on intraday trading. It was then observed that the very same patterns which appeared intraday would migrate upward through time.
Short-term we may be at a risk of a correction. However, longer-term, this is not a change in trend. It would be short-lived at best. The definition we have developed to distinguish between a bear market and a bull market is when we start to elect the Monthly Reversals. Daily Reversals are good immediately. Weekly denote a more sustained trend for a few weeks or monthly. But unless you get through the Monthly Level, you have not changed the broader trend.
Opinion means absolutely nothing. The numbers are the numbers and the markets will reveal the trend. That is always the key. Here is Monthly Gold. We elected the first two Monthly Bearish but not the next two. We fell and supported on the third reversal. Nevertheless, this confirmed that the 13 year bull market would make a major correction on time no matter how loud the gold promoters claimed I was wrong.
Now here is the Cash S&P500. We have NOT elected a single Monthly Bearish Reversal since the low in 2009. The advantage of our model is clear – it ain’t my OPINION. The numbers are the numbers. This is not a contest to beat my chest that I am smarter than someone else. ABSOLUTELY nobody can forecast the future perfectly every day. It is just not humanly possible. So you do NOT want to bet the house on that one forecast that might be wrong.
This is WHY we need definitive time-tested quantitative models that live and breathe with the markets. Because the majority of people will not accept that principle and will cling to their old fundamental theories like those who refused to believe the world was round rather than flat, there will always be a reservoir of people to trade against. They have to pay their dues before they can graduate to the next level.