QUESTION: The economist Robert Wiedemer, author of the New York Times best-selling book Aftershock, has forecasted that unemployment will rise to 50%, the stock market will crash by 90%, and the annual inflation will hit 100% starting in 2013. What is your view on this scenario?
ANSWER: Gibberish. Pure insanity. This is the same thing as the 1929 Great Depression and it reflects the domestic understanding of the economy EXCLUSIVELY. They do not comprehend what they are forecasting and merely regurgitate the events of 1929-1932 over and over assuming history repeats exactly the same. Lightening never strikes twice in the same spot identically.
Look, I grow tired on answering the same question over and over again. The crash between 1929 and 1930 was a NORMAL correction. What took place in 1931 was the Sovereign Debt Crisis where Europe defaulted, China and South American on their sovereign debt creating MASSIVE deflation in the form of a total destruction of wealth. You see the rally into early 1931. Once debt was being wiped out, over 3,000 banks failed and the market crashed. the value of MONEY rose in value and that is why FDR seized gold and devalued the dollar in 1934. There was no INFLATION but the total absence of inflation. So how do you get the stock market to crash with inflation? Impossible!!!! Even the Nikkei rallied with the decline in the yen, and then fell as the yen rose in value.
I have stated many times that unemployment rose to 25% during the Great Depression BECAUSE of the Dust Bowl and 40% of employment was agriculture. That is why unemployment went so high NOT because of industry failure. Today, unemployment will rise because of state and local government will be forced to reduce their labor forces driving unemployment higher. This is the primary source and rising taxation always reduces employment growth.
The relationship spouted out by so many calling for the Dow to fall by 90% means capital would have to flee to the safety of government meaning the dollar would rise in value and bond yields decline. To accomplish those ends today, interest rates would have to go NEGATIVE and then how do you get the 100% inflation? How does this reconcile with the crisis in public debt globally?
I am sorry. Our computer is THE BEST at correlations. The nonsense of this scenario is simply impossible and would be on par with instead of Obama getting his wife pregnant, he becomes pregnant. Just cannot happen