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Scotland – YES or NO – It is just Economics

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Somebody has just bet $1.3million on a ‘NO’ vote result in the upcoming Scottish Independence Referendum – was that you? J

Seriously, is the computer predicting a ‘YES’ on this issue (I have seen on the blog that the timing would be perfect, cycle-wise) and do you believe the hype about a 10% drop in GBP Sterling if Scotland does split from the UK?

The world is getting more and more fractured everyday – you have made a brilliant call on the rise in civil unrest.. have been following closely since you predicted the Ukraine crisis well before the media had latched onto the story.




ANSWER: No – didn’t make that bet. The computer projected this would be a major turning point for Scotland. However, it is a close race and it really does not matter YES or NO. In either case, this will not be the end. If YES, it does not unfold until 2016 and there will be tremendous machinations so how the government will end up would tend to be more toward the conservative path than socialist despite the views today. We also cannot rule out vote rigging as was the case in the 1996 US Presidential election. Here was our forecast for the 2000 election. The computer projected the Democrats should win. But the Supreme Court handed the election to Bush, Jr. Later, when the votes were counted, it showed that the Democrats should have won.

Unfortunately, this is the same situation for Scotland. It is very tight. If this is a NO vote, when the economy turns down, they will vote again and say see – told you so. We are seeing this trend in the USA, Canada with Quebec, Spain, and you will see it emerge in Germany as well. Turn the economy down and we are in serious trouble.

The significance of our computer model is that we eliminate human emotions. An analyst will be colored by his subconscious no matter what. So someone pro-union will see what they want to see as the independent will see only their biased view. The computer cuts through the bias and just calls it like it is. When we warned about the Scottish separation vote, plenty of emails came in saying it was a joke and there was less than 5% support. But turn the economy down and you change politics.

The Great Depression in 1933 brought Hitler, Mao, and FDR to power all in the same year. This is always about economics. So a NO vote will only still lead to a YES movement within 2 years.