Posted Dec 16, 2014 by Martin Armstrong
The anti-dollar contingent around the world who have preached that since Russia already trades its own currencies independently from the dollar and China has been trying to make the same move, are spinning the blogs claiming this is a “Zionist banker” conspiracy and this proves that all nations are tired of debt making Zionist banking. Well aside from the prejudice, this is not about merely debt and banking. I warned in the Greatest Bull Market that during a massive Sovereign Debt Crisis, there is nothing that remains standing. This is a complete control-alt-delete.
There was nothing that survived during the Great Depression from stocks, bonds, commodities, tangible assets, to currencies. This is what we are facing. The complete meltdown of the world economy thanks to the convergence of many factors. Just about anything that can go wrong is going wrong and the end game is not looking pretty. As we can see from this chart of the bond market, while Andrew Mellon first bragged when the stock market crashed “gentlemen buy bonds”, those who ran into the bond markets either were left with nothing as sovereign debt defaulted, or their US bonds were suddenly devalued by FDR and the gold redemption clauses were reneged upon.
The Russian central bank tried to shore up the currency with a rate hike to 17%, but when that proved ineffectual, confidence in the bank evaporated and the sellers piled on. This is an example of the problems we face with all governments. Right now, people generally look to government with a demigod perspective that they are in charge and all powerful. I have been behind the curtain and also been on the other side of phone calls from various central banks in the middle of a panic. They are no more in control than you or I. All they can do is pound their chest and hope people will do as they preach.
The collapse in Russia is being caused by a collapse in energy prices and sanctions. The Middle East has become addicted to high energy prices and thus they have increased their budget taking into consideration expectations of perpetual high energy prices. However, with all things, there is a cycle. Our original forecast back in 1998 that oil would rise to $100 by 2007 was at first laughed at. By 2000, even the Department of Energy wanted us to forecast energy prices for the nation.. What has to be understood is rather simple. Oil had to rise in price in order to generate (1) new improvements in extracting, and (2) alternatives. We saw that rally and by 2007 the year-end closing was $95.98. The rally ended with the highest closing coming on the 13 year mark in 2011 closing that year at $98.83 in line with the Economic Confidence Model.
During the Great Depression, stocks rallied into 1929 but commodities peaked in 1919. The tangible commodity sector declined into 1932 coinciding with the stock low. That 13 year decline was profound. It wiped out much of the commodity industry. The correlated trends globally demonstrate that this is not some conspiracy of Zionist bankers, Illuminati, or a plot between Saudi Arabia and the USA to destroy Russia. We are dealing with a very serious crisis within the global economy that is by no means limited to Russia or oil.
We are witnessing the unraveling of the world economy because we have pervasive corruption in government with political manipulations that are only concerned about winning the next election. There is no plan here for the long-term.
Crude oil has two numbers we must now pay close attention to for year-end $75 and $57. A closing BELOW $57 warns that we are in serious trouble with oil and we may not see the final low until 2016-2017. The real critical level of support lies at $32. We should see this type of decline send crude back to retest the 1980 high of about $40 similar to gold retesting the $875 high of 1980. Welcome to the land of DEFLATION as all the promises of socialism with government taking care of you from cradle to grave are over and done with.
Consequently, additional proof that this is not limited to Russia is just open your eyes. There is a crisis in ALL EMERGING markets. As the dollar rises and commodities decline, this is part of the cycle that sets in motion the Sovereign Debt defaults.
Russia’s central bank raised its key interest rate to 17 percent in the early hours of Tuesday morning in an emergency move to halt a collapse in the ruble as oil prices decline and the country’s sanctions-hit economy slides towards recession. We are looking at a major decline within the world economy. This is part of Big Bang. We will produce a major and very serious report on this entire subject matter after the closing of 2014.