Posted Apr 3, 2015 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Marty, back on March 10th you said you had support at the 105, 103 and 100 levels in the cash euro. You then called for a bounce after the low was reached at the 10461 price level on March 13. You also said “The Break-Line reaches 80 cents on the next 8.6 year wave” back on March 6. I further understand you always state where you are wrong as a trader and that is the 140 level now. You said that the next major monthly sell signal is at 98 also on March 6. You also said the earliest target for the break of the euro will be 2018 on March 9. You have been talking about this support at the 103 level since Jan 22. My question is this. Putting all this together, you clearly do not expect the 80 cent level to be broken it seems before 2018. You have also stated that if you elect a reversal far away, the market will bounce back to that level before proceeding. You have just stated that two other reversals were also elected at 10970 and 11983. You have stated that the trading range is defined as par to this 11600-11700. area. So I assume you expected a bounce back to this 10970 to 11100 price zone before any resumption of the decline. I am correct in reading all this?
ANSWER: Yes. If the Euro simply went below 80 cents right now, then that would have warned of a dollar high with 2015.75, which does not appear to be likely in the scheme of all things. Nevertheless, we will provide the numbers to show where that view is RIGHT and WRONG. You must ALWAYS define those points. The European economic decline is likely to increase the pressure on separatism in Europe. That will shake the confidence in the Euro. Because we also have a 2017 War Cycle turning point on both civil and international, this may be the target for that type of action.
The problem with Brussels is very clear. They are trying to force a political solution to an economic problem. This never works. Economic problems can ONLY be solved with economic solutions, not political.
As far as the 140 number, you ALWAYS must define where you are right and where you are wrong. That is the 140 level. That should NEVER be read as a forecast, for I seriously doubt we will get back above the 123 level at the very very very best. This 10970 to 111000 area is the first key resistance zone. After that we have the 116-117 level. Support will be scaled in now between the 10365 level down to 9800. The 9800 level is the defining where the next breakdown exists. So between there and here, this is churning now. We should not just go beyond that on the downside.