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Plagiarism Risks Everything

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COMMENT: Marty, it is amazing that you seem to be the major source for trends and ideas. You may be the most plagiarized analyst or forecaster in history. You come out and say there will be an economic downturn from October and heads of states start saying this like David Cameron. Then you write that this will be the worst downturn in hundreds of years and others pretending to be analysts without the historical depth amazingly come out and say the same thing. Then within two days of you writing that Greece must move to a two-tier currency restoring the drachma, astonishing other analysts write the same thing. You said there would be a dollar rally and exposed the massive new dollar debt by emerging countries. It was no shock to suddenly read that view in claimed round-tables which did not appear until you explained where all the dollars went from QE1-3. You and your computer do influence the world. I can see this easily reading the media yet at the same time they all try to pretend you do not exist and this is miraculously their original thought without the database. I suppose this must emerge from spontaneous combustion.


REPLY: Well, this is about trying to save society from the clutches of authoritarianism. It may fall flat on its face. Perhaps I will have to run to a deserted beach or build a tree house deep in the woods praying to escape from this insane world. You cannot alter the trend. At the vest best, all we can do is hopefully get people to understand we are on a merry-go-round repeating the past continually. Aren’t we getting dizzy by now?


The problem with plagiarizing our models is rather simple. At the end of the day they cannot prove their analysis and that introduces another problem. If you cannot back up what you say with evidence, then they will dismiss those ideas for they go against the majority. In their pursuit of personal benefits, they tend to put at risk the future of everyone. We are headed into a major economic storm. This is the kind of storm that results in dramatic change. The consequence of shifting the financial capitol of the world to Asia will be a profound impact upon the West.

We are too short-sighted to see the trend and too stubborn in our views to consider what if we are ever wrong? To be a good trader, you must constantly question your position. The instant you just assume you are right, that is when you lose everything. Trust by verify.