Posted Jul 19, 2013 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: ” But keep in mind that the major event should be later 2015 – not right now.” Could you please explain with more details these important words?
ANSWER: The 1987 Crash was just that on the mid-term turning point with the crash unfolding, but that was short-lived and not a sustained change in trend qualifying it as a minor rather than a major change in trend. The 1987 low came on the day of the turning point and thus it was over and done with. Brokerage houses around the world then asked me to do “retail” sessions for them because we were forecasting that the LOW WAS IN PLACE and that new highs would be made by 1989 when the majority were predicting once again a collapse in the Dow to 10 cents on the dollar. It was not a major change in trend whereas the 1989.95 turning point began a long-term change in trend with Japan beginning as 23 years decline and the start of the fall in Communism.
This is what I mean by saying that the immediate turning point on August 7th, 2013, is not going to be the major event whereas 2015.75 will see a serious economic decline once again, which comes when we turn at the top of the Business Cycle.
If we look at the 2007.15 turning point the Dow peaked later in October. What peaked with the ECM to the day? It was real estate that was even reflected in the Dow Jones US Real Estate Index. That peaked with the model in February 2007. The Dow did the same, but later made a new high briefly and then fell. BECAUSE the Dow did not peak in February, we were able to forecast that the low was in place a new highs would be seen after 2011.45. Even Barron’s correctly stated that forecast.
The real Estate market has been coming back in areas that have proven to attract foreign capital.
So as we look ahead, this is a MINOR rather than a MAJOR change in trend. We will see capital flows shift and intensify, but this is NOT a change in long-term trend. That comes in 2015.75.