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Interest Rates

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In reality, easy-money policies and below-normal interest rates are here for a long time to come. We are seeing pressure on the labor market still has not fully recovered from the financial crisis and recession. We are at twice the level where we were prior to the economic turn in 1929 that became the Great Depression. With government at the state and local levels in contraction and even the Post Office is hiring only part-time to avoid pension, the future outlook for unemployment is one of a steady rising market (decline in employment) with no hope in sight without economic reform.

Accordingly, the Fed will only very gradually move to raise rates looking at the labor market. They will get very confused when the stock market breaks out into a bubble. However, this will be capital trying to get out of banks primarily in Europe. These trends are highly charged. Nonetheless, rates are too low and this creates more deflation for the elderly, baby-boomers going into pensions, and the pension funds themselves who are being driven out of government bonds.

Larry Summers has set the stage. We will not merely see low-interest rates, we will see NEGATIVE interest rates as well. Welcome to the Spiral of Deflation where pretty much the only thing that rises historically has been the off-the-grid tangible assets. That will be stocks, real estate, collectibles, etc.