Posted May 1, 2014 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: How far in the future does your computer model project?
ANSWER: One of the fascinating aspects about modeling the world economy is you rapidly discover that the complexity is enormous, yet the outcome is far more predictable Long-Term than Short-Term. This may seem illogical at first, but once you comprehend the dynamics of the system it becomes understandable.
The Long-Term is far easier to predict with even 100% accuracy than Short-Term. Why? There is a lot of noise within the system so that markets can rally today and drop tomorrow yet the closing prices are nothing dramatically different. The Long-Term is what confuses people. Like the whole reasoning behind gold, fiat, deficits, and the dollar. People look at the national debt and say the system has to burst. That may be true that the sustainability of ANY system inevitably falls into collapse. However, the question is always TIMING.
Bretton Woods was a fatal design as was the Euro trying to create a single currency yet retain individual sovereign debt. That does not mean that the system would be incapable of functioning for a few decades. However, such system cannot be sustained indefinitely and will always collapse.
Therefore, you can state with confidence that the Euro will collapse, as will the Dollar and the Yen. The question is simply WHEN? Consequently, the Long-Term can be predicted with ease; the TIMING is something altogether different.
Our model is concerned about TIME and the interplay between all the factors that combine to make or break the trend. This is not about personal opinion for NOBODY can predict the future with respect to complexity and TIME from a pure opinion or gut reaction.
Our computer can accurately project Long-Term trends out into the hundreds of years. Why? Because it is only a matter of TIME that all things must change and evolve. The United States will break-up as a political entity and it is the people’s fault because human nature allows crazy politicians to go unpunished for decades before revolution bursts out onto the scene.
This is what the conspiracy nuts cannot get through their head who insist Ukraine was orchestrated by a CIA plot. All the desire of the CIA to accomplish a change in government may exist. However, the best that can be accomplished is a coup – not a revolution. Why? A coup does not require the PEOPLE – only a small group. A Revolution requires the PEOPLE and that will only be accomplished when the economic trend declines and forces the people to take action. The USA will go through this VERY SAME process. You will see the rise of civil unrest as the economy turns down after 2015.75 and uprisings like Occupy Wall Street unfold but with more violence. That will NOT be a CIA plot – and people who fail to comprehend this important difference are just too biased in their views to see the writing on the wall.
Therefore, the Long-Term is very predictable that there will be a revolution in the USA when the taxes rise and the standard of living collapses so that people have then lost their future. What makes such changes take place is ALWAYS the economy. If you can map the world economy, you can map the future.
The ONLY question is TIME.