Posted May 19, 2013 by Martin Armstrong
Bull markets I have stated many times are 7, 11, 13 or 21.
Gold has three very interesting bottoms. The 1999 is the intraday low. 2000 is the lowest yearly closing. Then 2001 produces the lowest quarter closing. This is an interesting set up that is rare to say the least. So effectively, both the 11 and 13 cycles come into play since the low was not a single event. So we got the 13 year since 2012 was the highest closing but we got the intraday in 2011 as 11 up from the lowest closing. Had both the intraday and the close been unified in 1999, then the ideal would have been 2010 with a max of 2012.
Likewise, on the way down we should have had a 19 month correction but the move up to create the highest annual closing in 2012 extended the cycle. Everything happens for a reason and this may prove to be the currency crisis.
This decline will be no different than anything before. The bulk of the drop always takes place within the first 2-3 years. So just as gold crashed from $875 in 1980 to $293 by 1982, the 5 year bear market prevailed but low was $280 compared to $293. The 19 year low was only $254.
Even if gold declines into 2015, the bulk of the drop will most likely take place during this year as was the case 1980-1982. A lower low in 2015 may be marginal. That depends upon the low we see this time. If it is in the 1150 area, then the worse case should be 875-907.
We still see the phase transition for 2017 time frame and that is normally up to a 2 year event so 2015-2017 does not change anything long-term. The rest will be in the report.