Posted Mar 2, 2013 by Martin Armstrong
Everything as far as strategy is concerned depends upon your position. Those who have physical coin it is more difficult to sell and buy than to hold. Traders must go with the trend. If you have tons of physical, then you should be a hedger. Gold has not BROKEN yet. It is in serious trouble but the key in gold lies at 15470, 15413, and 15323. We have a huge gap from there to 11589 and this is not real good from a trading perspective. If you are a trader, of course you must sell. Physical coins, in a reasonable quantity should just be hedged. Small quantities, of physical gold are typically just a hold.
The key areas of support will be 14650, 13800, 11500, and the extreme at 9070. Where does a BEAR MARKET begin long-term, 680. Therefore, that does not appear to be viable..Gold still looks to be headed to new highs after 2015.75.
There MUST be a correction in order to revitalize the market for a further advance. So, your risk in a decline to 11500 area down to 9070. Keep in mind that it will often take a poke below a major psychological number such as 1,000.to turn the majority bearish. In 1985 gold moved to 280.50 and then reversed. For 1999, that had to be penetrated and gold stopped at 254.0. Therefore, you can stop just a hairs-breath above a number such as 254 hold 250 or you can penetrate it up to generally 10% as 280 with the 300.
So it is entirely possible that if the 11500 gives way, we will stop just under 1,000 flushing out everyone who keeps saying buy and never sell. If that is too much risk, then sell and get back in with the first Monthly Bullish Reversal elected.
Gold is like ALL markets. It rises and falls. Physical gold with golds is an insurance policy. This is NOT the “investment” to make INCOME from. That requires trading or buying stocks that at least pay dividends.
Thus, buy, sell, or hold depends upon you personal threshold of pain and your objective. Trades – trade off the Reversals. We are not yet ready for prime time. We are still looking at May/June 2013 as a key target in TIME. Keep in mind, that the faster you decline, the faster it is over with. The slower more dragged out, the greater the risk of a dead market for several years. We will have to reassess where gold is come June.