Posted Oct 24, 2013 by Martin Armstrong
QUESTION: Martin, why do you often talk out of both sides of your mouth about Gold? You might say Gold can go to $12,000 per ounce, but it is headed to $600 first.
Isn’t gold in permanent backwardation? I believe the previous record for Gold backwardation was 3 days near major lows, but aren’t we at like 90 days now?
Isn’t the Comex just a price suppression scheme as the volume is usually 50% to 100% of open interest? FYI stocks such as Apple and Google have volume of about 2% of shares outstanding. Doesn’t this suggest that most CME trades are fake/wash trades to set the price?
Hasn’t the US and the Federal reserve already defaulted on Gold already? i.e. Germany
Haven’t the Bullion banks already defaulted on Gold already? I.e. MF Global, ABN Amro, RaboBank, etc.
Isn’t the Comex Gold inventory likely make believe? I.e. why would MF Global and JPM feel the need to steal warehouse receipts and client funds if they had millions of ounces in the vault, as the CME data suggests? And why the recent disclaimer on the CME data?
ANSWER: First of all, I never said gold would go to $12,000, $5,000 was the best I saw. On the downside, $600 is not my number a retest of the 1980 high of $875 is reasonable because it simply has to break the back of the nonsense just as the Japanese had to learn that the government could not support the Nikkei. Nor did all this nonsense prevent gold from declining for 19 years when the same fundamental stories were told to the last group that lost their shirt. If you continue to want to donate your money to the bankers, then go ahead, believe the gold promoters who only talk one side of a market. EVERY market has two sides and until you learn that, then you have no business investing in anything.
Gold is not in permanent backwardation. You obviously never heard of carrying costs that are related to the interest rate. Nothing is EVER permanent. Stop the idiotic explanations. You cannot point to a single relationship in history that is ever permanent except stupidity. Just like the propaganda that silver is suppress and it will soar to 16:1 because that is where it use to be. Good one.
“Isn’t the Comex just a price suppression scheme as the volume is usually 50% to 100% of open interest?” That is up there with communism. We just answered that in the Swiss press that published the Socialists who claim that commodities are higher than they should be because of speculation and therefore all futures markets should be closed to eliminate speculation. This is the pinnacle of pure stupidity. Every study shows that markets reduce volatility and the price of a commodity is stabilized by creating a market. If there was no COMEX, the price of gold would be far less because you could not sell it without a market. I was a market-maker. All the stores buying gold would not have existed if they could not have sold what the bought from the public, someone refined that jewelry, and then resold it into COMEX. If you want no markets, I will be be glad to send you a Karl Marx TShirt I suggest you wear.
“Hasn’t the US and the Federal reserve already defaulted on Gold already? i.e. Germany” Even if this were true, what is it supposed to do? Make gold soar? These are desperate excuses put out by people who just talk gold higher and swear they are not wrong – the markets are. Governments will never admit to anything anyway so it cannot be proven so what is the point? This is like Hollywood putting out movies that say every marriage will be happily ever after. (see Spiegel)
Isn’t the Comex Gold inventory likely make believe? The COMEX is not the only warehouse. Inventories are routinely manipulated to get people to buy or sell. They shipped silver to London for the Buffet Rally. Everyone rushed out to buy saying there was a shortage because it was moved to London where it was not reported. Again, if you are so desperate to cling to things like this to say you are right and the entire free markets are wrong, good luck. Governments cannot even manipulate what you claim can be done.
Are you trying to survive and make money? Or are you just spreading propaganda that is created by gold promoters to get people into a zealot state that they will continue to buy even when they lose money? Gold is a market and it rises and falls like everything else. It is trading NO DIFFERENT from the rest of the commodity sector. Everything is linked and everything has its cycle and time. Why should gold rally when the MAJORITY of people see nothing wrong? Until the majority of people question government, which is coming, then and only then will gold rally on a sustainable basis. It did not even exceed the 1980 high adjusted with the bogus CPI numbers that stand at $2300 today. When gold exceeds that number – THEN AND ONLY THEN is real bull market underway.
If you stop fighting the trend and embrace how markets trade, what is so wrong with waiting to buy the low? You just may make more money that way than donating to those spreading propaganda for their own self-interest. How can someone be an analyst when his livelihood depends upon selling you that which he claims to be an independent analyst?