The possibility of a 5-year bear market and the signs that will indicate that trend are covered in detail in the 2013 Metals report. Suffice it to say, just Google dollar devaluation and you get pages upon pages of everyone swearing the dollar must collapse so buy gold. Then look at the Dow. The vast majority cannot believe it is making new highs and keep saying this is it.
Markets are fueled ALWAYS by the majority being wrong. That is what reverses the trend be it bullish or bearish. Can gold decline for 5 years? – ABSOLUTELY. Can it bottom in 2013 and rally for the 37-year target in 2017? Of course. Would gold fall dramatically? Not likely. It may move to retest the 1980 high in the $907 area. I have stated this many times. Is that the likely outcome? That will depend on the closing for 2013 and the events we see on the turning points in the 2013 Metals Report.
You must realize that a collapse in Europe/Euro and a further decline in the yen, are likely to force the dollar to record highs as was the case in 1985 when the national debt also rose by 300% with a rising dollar. You cannot judge the increase in the supply of the dollar solely based on old theories of domestic supply and demand. This is a global economy. The demand is measured by INTERNATIONAL capital flows not by the Federal Reserve. Sorry – it is a new world and it is time to observe the real trends not antiquated theories that no longer apply.