Dow & the November Panic Cycle

DJIND-D 11-7-2014

In March we warned that November was when things would perk up. Boy have they. We swung from the test of the bearish reversal at 15900 to new highs. That is what a Panic Cycle is. The vast majority of the time these Panic Cycles take out both sides of the previous price action. We are now butting up against resistance and without new highs again, we will retest support.

The Dow did not quite reach the ideal target at 17712-17725, peaking at 17683 and closing at 17613. The support is moving up rapidly beginning at 17465 followed by 17235. Closings below these areas will shift the market back into a neutral to bearish posture.

DJFOR-D 11-10-2014

The strongest target will be again Friday this week. But next week is of some concern on our correlation models. There may be some escalation in geopolitical events starting next week ideally on the 19th running into Friday.

DJIND-D 11-10-2014

 

The major resistance stands at the 17900-18000 area. Only exceeding the top of that channel area would hint of a breakout unfolding. For now, we are still pushing the envelope preparing for a run to the 23000 area perhaps next year.