Dow Jones – To Be or Not to Be

DJIND-D 6-27-2013

We wrote on June 20th:

“The Daily Bearish Reversals are 14670 and 14392 with the Weekly Bearish at 14390 and 14360/ The key support starts with the Monthly Bearish at 13139 and 12940, with the critical support at the Monthly Bearish at 12220.”

DJFOR-D 6-27-2013

We elected the minor Daily Bearish on the 24th but that was also the directional change. The key support is the 14390 level on both the weekly and daily. That is the vital area to watch. The rally that has unfolded so far is just a reaction. The Daily Bullish stands at 15363. Watch out for tomorrow as a turning point and then volatility will rise in July.

The dollar is rising rather sharply around the globe. The rise in India has impacted gold sharply and this is putting tremendous pressure on Switzerland where the central bank stands to lose a fortune between gold and the Euro. Meanwhile Europe is starting to move back away from centralized government and nations are legally now allowed to even raise their borders.

ECM-Wave-2011-2020

The dollar rally that is brewing will provide underlying support for the Dow. But it would be good if we can decline into July rather than make new highs. A low with the ECM will increase the chances for a Phase Transition in the Dow going into a major high for 2015.